Friday, May 24, 2013

From Bofors to 2G, the same fate

From Bofors to 2G, the same fate
Arun Kumar
CESP, SSS, JNU.
The Hindu May 24, 2013

The parliamentary committees on the howitzer scam and the stock market scandal protected the powerful and failed to fix accountability. The same is true in the spectrum case


The current political situation brings back memories of 1989. The Prime Minister then was under a cloud in the Bofors scam. Many of his close associates like Lalit Suri and Ajitabh Bachchan were accused of wrong-doing. Today, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and many around him are under a cloud. The Congress president has been weakened by allegations against her son-in-law. The Joint Parliamentary Committee report on Bofors was rejected by the Opposition. It resigned en masse from Parliament forcing national elections. Presently, the JPC draft report on 2G has been rejected by the entire Opposition.
In 1989, Rajiv Gandhi was protected by the ruling party members in the JPC. The Opposition felt that some key people associated with the Bofors deal were not called to depose or had not been adequately questioned. Now too, A. Raja has not been called to depose, even though he is the key accused in the 2G scam, lest he should implicate the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister.


COALGATE

As in 1989, governance has taken a beating today with the government getting caught in one scam after another. In an attempt to brazen them out, the government is committing mistakes and compounding its problems. The mess created by the former Law Minister vis-à-vis the Central Bureau of Investigation and the Supreme Court, in an attempt to save Dr. Singh (who was also the Coal Minister when the scam took place), has embarrassed the government.
As the Bofors scam unravelled in 1987-88, India’s international standing plummeted. The GATT Uruguay round of negotiations was at a crucial stage with India acting as the leader of developing countries in negotiating with the advanced countries. India’s stand softened perceptibly at that time. Consequently, in 1999, in Seattle, India was not trusted by other developing countries. Today also, India’s stock has declined and its neighbours are taking advantage of the situation.
In 1987, it was the Swedish radio that brought to light the payoffs in the Bofors deal. In Parliament, Rajiv Gandhi denied any wrong-doing. His government argued that Bofors was a good gun but investigators in Sweden revealed that payoffs had been made. The UPA government, too, has denied wrongdoing in the various scams that have come to light and argued that its actions have furthered policy and helped keep prices down. It is the intervention by courts that has led to progress in investigations into scams like the CWG, Hasan Ali case, Liechtenstein disc, 2G and Coalgate.
In the Bofors case, the true beneficiaries could not be identified because of manipulation at the highest levels. This became clear soon enough but the matter was nailed when Madhav Singh Solanki passed on a note to the Swiss Minister — to slow down the case. This led to a furore in Parliament but rather than reveal the content of his note, he preferred to resign. Who sacrifices one’s career unless the stakes are very high? Ottavio Quattrocchi escaped from India and has been repeatedly helped by our agencies (which weakened the case) so that he does not return to India to face trial and questioning.
The Congress has accused the Opposition of playing politics with the Bofors scam saying even when the Opposition was in power, it was not able to unravel the case and find the ultimate recipient of the Bofors money. This is a pointer to how important cases are spoilt so that it becomes difficult even for an Opposition party to solve it when it comes to power. The system works like a mafia — in secrecy and silence. The institutions that should help expose scams are unable to do so because of the silence of those who know. The selection of people for key posts is often based on their pliability. IAS officers like Arun Bhatia or Khemka are marginalised. Some honest individuals who do get to the top typically keep their counsel and avoid ruffling the system much. They become the fig leaf behind which the system can hide its true nature.
In the Coalgate scam, it has emerged that the CBI is not independent of the political authority which it is supposed to investigate. It has now been confirmed that cases against politicians are activated or put on the back burner depending on the needs of the ruling dispensation. It is the Supreme Court that placed the CBI under the Central Vigilance Commission to introduce a degree of autonomy in its functioning. But it has now been proved beyond doubt that the administrative machinery under which the CBI personnel function can twist its arms, undermining its autonomy.
In India, Parliament is the ultimate watchdog to check wrong-doing by the authorities. The increasing number of scams is a testimony to its failure. JPCs are an instrumentality of Parliament and an analysis of their inability to make a dent is a pointer to what is wrong in the system. Their lack of success is due to their inability to pinpoint responsibility in the issues they have investigated, and this is largely due to the partisan attitude of the members of the JPCs. They have acted to protect the powerful. The JPC of 1992 on the stock market scam in which Harshad Mehta was the key player is a case in point.
Mehta played havoc with the financial system, including the RBI. He was the blue-eyed boy of the Finance Ministry at that time. In October 1991, when in spite of the crisis confronting the economy — high inflation, declining growth rate, and the BoP crisis — the stock market kept rising, concerns were raised in Parliament. The then Finance Minister replied that “he would not lose sleep” over the matter. A clear signal to people like Mehta that the government would not check their speculation in the stock market. However, when members of the JPC wanted this to be recorded in the report, the Congress members resisted and the report did not incorporate it. Clearly, accountability could not be established.
The Finance Minister met Mehta a few days before the budget in 1992 and accepted his demand that shares should be exempted from wealth tax. The markets rose sharply on the day of the budget and Mehta made a killing because he had advance information. Mehta was raided by the Income Tax department that day because of the huge amount of funds he had been moving around for some months but the Minister stopped the raid a few hours after it started. So the source of funds could not be traced and the scam could not be prevented. It was never revealed in the JPC who stopped the raid and why, because the officer concerned did not appear before the JPC. Again accountability could not be established.
The Janakiraman Committee report on the scam estimated a loss of Rs.3,128 crore to the public — huge compared to the Bofors scam of Rs. 64 crore. Today, the Coalgate and the 2G scams dwarf all other scams. It is clear that stock market scams have continued because accountability was not fixed in 1993. A large number of people lost their lifetime savings (as in the Saradha chit fund scam). Now again, accountability is not being established in the 2G scam.


ROT RUNS DEEP

Waves of scams have occurred in the stock market. Timber companies, granite companies and dotcom companies were floated only to disappear with the public money. It was estimated that 2,500 companies disappeared in the 1990s, leading to huge losses to the public. No one was prosecuted and that emboldened the scamsters. The collapse of the UTI had much to do with the manipulations in the stock market and the pressures from the Ministry of Finance but no responsibility was fixed. The problem is not peculiar to the Congress. Since 1989, almost all parties have been in power but the system has hardly changed. The rot of unaccountability runs deep and is visible in all institutions, including hospitals and universities where the most literate and conscious population of the country works.
Herein lies the lesson for the nation facing an increasing number of scams and breakdown of systems. Those in power are unaccountable since they operate in a system of silence and surround themselves with sycophants. Since little has been learnt on this score since 1989, the scale of disruption has grown manifold. When will we learn to fix responsibility?

Monday, March 4, 2013

Union Budget 2013-14: Caught Between Various Contradictions

Union Budget 2013-14: Caught Between Various Contradictions
Arun Kumar.
Sukhamoy Chakravarty Chair Professor, CESP, SSS, JNU
Mainstream. March 2, 2013. Vol LI No 11.

The Union Budget is the largest single economic event of the year for the nation. It sets the direction for the economy for the coming year. Hence it is keenly watched by the public. The Union Budget for 2013-14 projects an expenditure of 14.6% of the GDP for that year, i.e., Rs.16,65,297 crore. This is a huge sum of money and as usual the FM doles it out in dribs and drabs to every politically important section of the nation. In the part A of his speech which presents the government’s intentions, he mentions almost all these sections – SC, ST, minorities, women, youth and so on. The impression created is that it takes care of everyone. But the real question is, what does it do for the economy as a whole and whether it tackles the major problems that the economy currently faces?
The Finance Minister at the outset identifies the problem facing the economy – the difficult macroeconomic situation. Three aspects are mentioned. First, the economy is rapidly slowing down with the rate of growth falling quarter by quarter in the last more than a year. Secondly, the rate of inflation remains at a high level in spite of all the attempts by the government and the Reserve Bank. This high rate is persisting over the last three years, especially in food items, in spite of the high foodgrain reserves. Finally, the Current Account Deficit in the external account of the nation is dangerously high.
In addition to this, there were two mutually contradictory constraints on the budget. First, this is possibly the last budget before the next general elections and the party expected it to have a strongly pro-poor image to garner votes in a very bleak political scenario given its severely tarnished image due to scams and mismanagement of the economy. Secondly, the international agencies are watching hawk like the performance of the Indian economy from the point of view of the business climate and especially for international finance capital. They want the government to adopt a conservative political stance. The international credit rating agencies have been threatening to lower the rating of the economy because India’s foreign debt ($ 365 billion in September 2012) has been mounting rapidly given the current account deficit. If that were to happen, then in spite of the current high foreign exchange reserves ($295 billion in January 2013) of the country, capital may begin to flow out and lead to a sharp devaluation of the currency with consequent problems. There has been a rapid slow down in flow of FII and FDI into India.
Thus, the room for maneuver for the Finance Minister to give big ticket concessions to a lot of people (as in the 2008 budget) was limited. Yet, it can be termed as an election year budget given that it has not taken the tough steps required to put the economy back on the rails so that it could grow faster. For India a 5% rate of growth is inadequate in the present development scenario since that results in rising unemployment – a consequence of a high capital intensive development. The concession to elections is that the budget projects many small give aways to many sections of the population without giving away any major amounts to any one which would have dented the macro economic scenario and produced a reaction from the international institution.
Another concession to the international institutions is that the expansionary policies needed to step up growth have been held in abeyance and instead supply side response is sought to be generated via concessions to the corporates and the stock markets. That is why expenditures were severely curtailed in the present year (2012-13) and are sought to be kept in check in the year 2013-14. The attempt is to not increase direct tax collections rapidly and curtail the fiscal deficit but to cut back on expenditures given that the revenues have fallen short with a slowing economy.
In 2012-13, an optimistic nominal rate of growth of the economy (14%) was projected. At that time also the experts had pointed out that a 7.5% rate of real growth was unrealistic but the government was adamant that this rate of growth would be achieved. Now it is clear that the year is ending with a less than 5% rate of growth. What is also clear is that all the agencies predicting the economy’s rate of growth – IMF, RBI, ADB, World Bank, private agencies, etc. - have proved to be wrong. The consequence of this incorrect assumption is clear. Revenues have been less than projected by 7.3%. The government is again doing the same by projecting a rate of growth of 13.4% while this is nowhere in sight unless the rate of inflation rises sharply but that will have other adverse consequences and targets will not be met.
Again due to wrong assumptions, the expenditures in 2012-13 have turned out to be more than projected. The government is forced to show higher expenditures to dress up its image. For instance, 2012-13 is the first year of the 12th Plan and the government wanted to show that it is serious so it projected an increase of 16.8% in the Central Plan outlay over the revised estimates of the previous year.  But from the figures now available it is clear that in 2011-12 it ended up spending (Rs.5,08,596 crore), much less than the revised estimates of that year (Rs.5,58,172 crore). Further the revised estimates of 2012-13 are Rs.5,56,176 crore which is less than the revised estimate of the preceding year. Thus, comparison of revised estimates shows that in 2012-13, there is a decline rather than an increase in plan spending. The actual figure is likely to be even less given the previous year’s experience. Such jugglery with figures seems to be the hallmark of successful Finance Ministers.
A consequence of this kind of creative playing with figures is that the government projects a higher allocation in the Plan for the important ministries like, Agriculture, Rural development, Irrigation and flood control and Tribal Affairs but ends up spending much less. In each of these cases, the revised estimates of expenditures (in 2012-13) are less than the actual spent in 2011-12. There is an absolute decline and not an increase. For other important ministries like, Ministry of Human Resource Development, Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, Ministry of Women and Child Development and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare the increase in Revised estimates for 2012-13 over the actual of the 2011-12 is hardly enough to compensate for inflation and as such there is little increase in expenditures for these necessities of the common man in real terms.
In his budget speech the Finance Minister now claims that he is increasing allocation to each of these Ministries by substantial amounts (to garner brownie points from the public for the coming elections). What he is showing is that over the much lower revised figures of expenditures in 2012-13 he will increase the allocations substantially in the coming year 2013-14. This is the usual jugglery adopted in the recent past and that is why the budgetary arithmetic turns out to be incorrect.
One of the unintended consequences of all this is that when the revenues of the Centre fall short then the transfers to the states also becomes less since they get 32% of the Central tax collections. The reduction in 2012-13 is Rs.32,000 crore. This makes the position of the states difficult and they also cut back from key social sector expenditures. Since they are the major spenders on the social sectors this worsens the position of the marginalized sections who depend more on the state expenditures. No wonder, we are unable to achieve the target of 6% of expenditures on education and so on. The Financé Minister has also promised to revamp the transfers to the states by changing the criterion and some backward states CMs seem to be happy with this. But unless the pie increases there may be only internal redistribution with some states losing out to others.
The Finance Minister has increased the tax on those earning more than Rs.1 crore per annum (42,800 in number) by 3% by imposing a surcharge of 10% on the tax they pay. This would garner along with other items of increased tax on luxuries about Rs.14,000 crore. But, this section benefits the most from the budget since the tax expenditures (taxes that should have been collected but are not, due to concessions) will rise by Rs.40,000 crore. Thus, the earlier statement by the Finance Minister that the super rich should pay more taxes comes to naught. There is also no increase in either the wealth tax or the estate duty.
To increase the revenue it was important to tackle the black economy and get additional resources but the Finance Minister has done little on this in spite of having received the reports from the three institutes that were charged with the task of analyzing the black economy. The postponement of implementation of GAAR to 2016 is a sop to the corporates and foreign entities. The changes in the secrecy provisions of funds routed through Mauritius and other tax havens were diluted immediately after announcement in the budget because of the reaction in the stock market. All this makes clear that the government is not serious about tackling the black economy. But this one step is the key to tackling inflation, improving governance, increasing the growth rate of the economy and checking the outflow of funds causing the BOP crisis at present.
In brief, the Finance Minister has missed the chance to correct the macro economic imbalance that afflicts the economy according to his own analysis. It is clear that there is much confusion in the Union Budget 2013-14 which has fallen between several stools and will not be able to give a clear direction to the economy apart from not disturbing the corporates and the foreign investors. The Aam Admi, in whose name the Congress (I) asked for vote, is once again marginalized.

      arunkumar1000@hotmail.com

Friday, November 23, 2012

Black Economy in India and Transnational Organized Crime: Undermining Democracy*

Black Economy in India and Transnational Organized Crime: Undermining Democracy*
Arun Kumar
CESP, SSS, JNU[1]. India

1.         Definitions     
Illegality typically leads to the generation of black market profits. The activities associated with it and the profits generated from it constitute the black economy. Hence, the size of a black economy represents the prevalence of illegality in a country. Illegality can be committed either through legal activities or illegal activities. Legal activities are those that are allowed by law (e.g., agriculture, finance, construction) and produce social “goods.” Revenues from these activities are counted as part of the national revenues. The implication is that they improve the welfare of the citizens and make society better.
Illegal activities are not permitted by law (e.g., smuggling, peddling of narcotic drugs, theft) and are said to produce social “bads,” since they degrade the welfare of society, if not also the individuals indulging in these activities. Profits from these activities are not counted in national revenue totals. Such activities are linked to criminal activities of various kinds (see Government of India 2011 for data on crime in India). However, not all crime is linked to generation of profits, for example murder or gender violence. Hence, the black economy will not capture such crimes. Furthermore, crime linked to economic activities that generate profits is often connected with organized crime, whether within countries or across borders – the latter is referred to as transnational organized crime.
The black economy can be understood as broadly reflecting illegality in an economy, even if it does not capture all criminal activities within a society (Kumar 1999). In India, the black economy pervades all sectors of the economy. Elite professions have also been found to be involved, for example businessmen, politicians, bureaucrats, police, legal representatives, medical personnel, chartered accountants, and education professionals, among others.
The size of the black economy has been rising since India’s independence in 1947. It has been estimated to have consecutively increased over the years: it was 4 to 5 percent of GDP in 1955/1956 (Government of India 1956); 7 percent in 1970 (Government of India 1971); 21 percent in 1980/1981 (NIPFP 1985); 40 percent in 1995/1996 (Kumar 1999); per projections by this author, it was 50 percent in 2005/2006. Thus, illegality and crime are constantly on the rise in the country, not only in absolute terms but in relative terms. It has grown from being petty and sporadic to becoming more organized (national and transnational).
Organized crime in India operates within a multitude of areas: illegal forestry and mining; narcotic drugs trafficking; gun-running; human trafficking; sex trade; illicit liquor making and distribution; encroachment of public land; production of spurious medicines and fake goods; adulteration of food items; malpractices in medical profession, including the sale of blood and organs and other malpractices, such as recycling of hospital waste; entertainment and film industry; hawala (an alternative remittance system that operates outside of traditional financing structures); flight of capital; illegal financing of trade; smuggling of goods, including gold and electronic items; and so on. Underlying these illegalities is the “Triad” of the corrupt businessmen, politicians, and the executive, which is made up of the bureaucracy, the police, and the judiciary.
2. Causes, history, and analysis
The black economy and illegality have existed in all societies at some point. In India, it became systematic during World War II, when shortages of essential items became critical. Rationing of food was introduced but there were black market activities to compensate. To escape detection, perpetrators bribed the bureaucracy and the police. Inflation led to increases in the prices of property, meaning that those without property found it difficult to get housing. The government introduced rent control laws, which became a source of corruption in the courts.
The British set up a civil service to administer (keep control of) India. The public servant became the public master with enormous power over the public, and this was used to extract bribes. However, the bulk of the population was poor, self-employed, and worked in agriculture. They had few public dealings, meaning that the level of corruption and the black economy was negligible. The civil service was accountable to the colonial masters. Because they were interested in efficient control of the country, they did not allow corruption to grow. They also paid the civil servants high salaries, as compared to the per capita incomes of locals, and gave them many privileges to lessen the temptation for corruption.
There was a landlord class ruling over the peasantry that extracted rent from the farmers on behalf of the colonial masters. They were a part of the tiny colonial ruling elite and had substantial powers, which were misused to extract money from the people they ruled. They were a law unto themselves and could extract money from the peasantry.
After independence, a political class came to power and replaced the colonial ruling elite. They started the task of development in a very poor country. They depended on the civil service for governing the country and did not transform it into a public service that was accountable to the people. The political class that emerged from the national freedom movement was democratic in its aspirations, but its members came from the country’s elite class and had feudal intentions. They thought of themselves as rulers and not as representatives of the people.
Consequently, independent India started with high aspirations but a weak democracy because the power was transferred from the colonial masters to a relatively unaccountable political class and a civil service that was accountable mostly to itself. As the democratic aspirations of the national movement weakened, the political class became more corrupt. The government of India (1956) talked about the need to keep the black economy in check so that more resources could be raised for development. It found businesses generating profits from black market activities in all sectors of the economy.
The Indian national movement understood that colonial rule was the source both of the poverty and the helplessness of the common man in dealing with their problems of unemployment, illiteracy, and so on. Therefore, it was decided that society as a whole had to overcome these basic problems of the people and the state was given a large role in economic matters. Furthermore, optimal utilization of resources required central planning, which required licensing of capacity in industries. This reinforced the role of the state in the economy.
Due to de-industrialization in India during colonial rule, Indian capitalists were too small to provide capital for the creation of the necessary infrastructure for transportation and power, for example. They lacked the technology and capital to invest in basic goods like metals and petroleum, or in capital goods manufacturing. The corollary was that a large public sector was needed to support both the growth of the private sector and the planning process. This required the mobilization of savings in a country that was poor. Consequently, consumption had to be restrained through taxation and limiting the production and importing of luxury goods. Imports were limited so as to conserve the foreign exchange required to import capital goods for development. A strategy of import substitution was adopted to boost industry and high customs duties were introduced for this purpose.
In 1944, the Indian capitalist class drew up a plan of industrialization in post-independence India that contained the abovementioned elements of policy (Thakurdas 1944). These plans were also incorporated in the industrial policy statements of 1948 and 1956. However, what the capitalists agreed to collectively, they undid through their private actions by fouling up policies through illegality. They cornered licenses by bribing authorities and creating monopolies for economic gain. In the various development activities and projects, corruption was introduced to make extra profits. This was not feasible without the connivance of the politicians and the bureaucracy, who were drawn into corruption. Luxury goods – or those goods that faced high customs duties – were smuggled in.
As India developed, the size of the middle class increased and shortages of basic goods (e.g., food, scooters, cement) or basic services (e.g., telephone and railway reservations) appeared. Queues formed for each of them, and soon thereafter black markets developed. Businesses took advantage of these black markets and corruption spread to the lower levels of society.
Big business in India realized that manipulating policies required close proximity to political power. It started exercising direct control over the political process by financing political parties and individual candidates for legislatures. It also increasingly interfered in appointments at the senior levels of the bureaucracy in key ministries. The Triad proved useful for this purpose and it was mutually convenient for the three arms of the Triad. The businessmen could manipulate policies, whereas the other two could get the help of businessmen to invest their ill-gotten gains.
Another aspect of colonial rule helped to spread corruption – the policy of divide and rule. The end of colonial rule left behind antagonisms and instability in India’s immediate neighborhood, which helped illegality to spread. There have been several wars and  continuing communal tensions with Pakistan; with China, there have been border disputes and strategic conflicts. These realities have fostered terrorist/separatist movements in India’s border states – Kashmir, Punjab, and in the northeast. In turn, they became areas for smuggling, gun-running, counterfeit-currency trading, human trafficking, sex trade, and so on.
India has had historically close relations with Nepal and, therefore, open borders. Large-scale poverty in Nepal and Bangladesh has spurred illegal activities in the border areas. The corrupt monarchy in Nepal and the unstable political climate in Bangladesh led to the spread of large-scale corruption. Ethnic problems emerged in Sri Lanka between the dominant Sinhala community and the Tamils concentrated in the north. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam emerged to fight a civil war over three decades. To finance its activities, it indulged in a wide array of illegalities. Their links with Tamils in India and across the globe helped in the proliferation of illegalities around the world.
Growing illegality in India was also linked to the oil crisis and the sharp increase in the petro goods prices in the 1970s. The sudden wealth in the oil-exporting countries led to large-scale economic activities there, but India lacked the necessary skilled labor (carpenters, plumbers, drivers, teachers, engineers, doctors), which they imported from South Asia on a large scale. These migrants started sending money back home to their families. This encouraged the spread of hawala internationally because the hawala operators provided cheap services and a premium on the money sent through them. Simultaneously, this service also allowed Indian businesses to send their capital abroad.
In 1991, India changed its policies and made massive concessions to the private sector – whatever it had been demanding in the 1980s was granted. Taxes were reduced, licensing was eliminated, and imports were liberalized, and so on. The role of the public sector and planning was minimized. With the arrival of the WTO in 1995, there was a further opening up of the economy to foreign trade and capital. The amount of illegality grew, and the nature of the black economy changed but it grew as well. As the market economy grew, queues ended but money determined who would get what. Anything could be imported, and the private sector allowed for the production of luxury goods. Thus, shortages of telephones, automobiles, televisions, and so on, disappeared, as did the black markets associated with them.
But, as restraints on business declined with the weakening of the state, business indulged in corruption in an even bigger way. The Triad, already in place, started functioning differently and shared the gains from corruption differently. Many politicians became businessmen – openly or in names of their family members. Businessmen also entered politics in larger numbers. Privatization and the establishment of the infrastructure of the private sector (in public-private partnership mode) offered new opportunities for making illegal gains by cornering resources like land, forests, and mines. Greater participation by the private sector since 1991 in the education and health sectors has created enormous opportunities to indulge in illegalities. The number of scams and the amount of money involved per scam has grown exponentially since the 1990s (Kumar 2012).
In brief, systematic illegality and corruption in the country has its roots in big business and the Triad it created. This has led to the emergence of organized crime in the country. The problems fostered at the borders with neighbors and the hawala links for flight of capital have enabled the linkage between local illegality and transnational crime. Finally, the indiscriminate opening up of the economy in 1991 has led to a further spread of illegality and crime.

3. Forms, cases, and interfaces of Indian illegality
For the black economy to be 50 percent of GDP, as it is currently, it has to be both systematic and systemic. Laws have to be systematically violated so that those in charge of maintaining the law of the land can partake in violations of the law. For certain favors, they will look the other way while businesses commit illegal activities. Take, for instance, the way the police and the judiciary in India function.
Illegalities are to be checked by the police, and the persons committing the illegal action should be brought to justice through the courts. In India, presently there are 40 million cases in the courts and they continue for years or decades (sometimes more than 30 years). The time in prison for many awaiting trial is longer than any sentence they might have to serve if they are convicted for the crimes they were supposed to have committed. Thus, in many jails, there are more people awaiting trial than there are people who have been convicted.
The delays are due to the widespread corruption in the courts and the non-accountability of the judges. Judges postpone hearing cases for frivolous reasons. The legal profession is also interested in such delays, since they collect fees on the basis of the number of appearances in court. Often in routine cases – in which a decision should come in less than a year – cases may drag on for more than five years. This leads to a fivefold increase in the number of cases pending. The pressure on the judges also increases. They may have to go through 50 cases in a six-hour working day, meaning that they have an average of seven minutes per case. Each case may come up for a hearing after a few months, meaning the judge must refresh her memory, thereby taking up precious time and often resulting in mistakes.
To smooth the work in the courts, a bribe might be paid. For instance, a court bailiff may charge a party between INR 1,000 (US$20) to INR 25,000 ($500) for having a property vacated by the losing party. The local police, who are required to accompany the court bailiff, charges separately. For the inspection of files, filing papers, and so on, an off-the-books payment to the clerks may be required. Judges have also been caught letting one of the parties to a case see whether the judgment suits their needs. One cannot publicly talk about these matters due to the fear of being hauled up for “contempt of court.”
The poor are mostly unable to approach the courts for justice, since filing cases is expensive and the laws are so opaque that often the poor who are not very literate do not understand their complexity. Even if they do go to court against a stronger party, the latter is able to bribe their way through the court and delay or subvert justice. Often there is a nexus between the judges and the lawyers. The well-off party hires a lawyer who is able to manipulate the legal system and who can fix a case to appear before a judge of choice. To minimize this kind of manipulation, the judge in a case is often changed. This has created its own problems, sometimes resulting in situations where up to 8 judges hear a case over a two-and-a-half-year period. This means each of the judges is unfamiliar with the case and often postpones the case on frivolous grounds.
Powerful persons in politics, business, organized crime, etc., can get cases against them thrown out by the prosecution. This is done at the initial stage of investigation, whereby crucial evidence is misplaced or not presented carefully so that the case fails in the court. Thus, these people do not even need to use corruption in the courts to obtain favorable decisions. Judges have often commented on the poor preparation of cases by the police. The powerful are known to influence witnesses to change their testimony. Threats – coupled with inordinate delays (the witnesses also forget what they have seen or heard) – lead to the spoiling of cases against the powerful people.
The result is that the members of the Triad have contempt for the law and violate it with impunity. In India, laws on paper differ substantially from how they are implemented due to the judicial delays and manipulations by those in power. For instance, there are laws against child labor, but these are circumvented in large parts of the country, including in the cities. In such violations, the police play an important part.
Illegality flourishes because the police participate in the process. They collect a weekly or monthly sum (hafta) to allow the illegal activities to continue. This money is collected from beggars in the streets, street vendors, encroachers on public land, businessmen, sex workers, car thieves, pick pockets, those doing illegal construction, and any other kind of illegal activity. The post of the head of a police station (called thana) is auctioned. This person sets targets for the collection of money for each of the “beat” constables. The more commercial activity or the higher the level of illegality in the jurisdiction of a police station, the more money collected. The money is then shared right up to the top (political bosses) (Kumar 1999). At every level, half the money collected is kept and the rest is passed on. Since the pyramid narrows steeply, a lot of money goes up to the few at the top.
The hafta from illegal activities is also collected by the local municipal officers and the local politicians. Thus, a substantial part of the earnings of a poor person is siphoned away by these officials and the politicians. The hafta results in linkages between the criminals and the officials. For instance, the pickpocket gets protection from the police and no new pickpocket can encroach on their territory. Organized crime is a party to this payment of hafta and it flourishes because of the official protection it receives.
In India, since land in urban areas is expensive, relative to per capita incomes, a large number of people migrating annually to the cities cannot afford any kind of formal housing. So the migrants either become homeless and sleep under overpasses, bridges, etc.; or they encroach on public land with the consent of the police and local politicians; or they crowd into existing slums, most of which have various degrees of illegality associated with them. Thus, with illegal acquisition of their shelter, they tend to fall into the grip of criminals. Since they need income, the family members at times get into illegal work, like bootlegging, sex trade, and so on. Organized crime gangs use their unstable living conditions and poverty to recruit workers for illegal work.
In private professional educational institutions, students pay for admissions (called capitation fees). In case of medical education, the capitation fee can be up to $100,000. The situation is similar in the case of engineering, management, and other professional courses. These institutions are often run by politicians and businessmen. On the pretext of providing social service, these institutions are allotted land at low prices and granted concessions. The involvement of politicians guarantees quick government approval.
Software- and information-related services have experienced a boom in India since the mid 1990s. These lend themselves to under- and over-invoicing and, therefore, to the flight of capital from the country. During the dot-com boom, many fake companies floated initial public offerings on the stock market and they disappeared with the public’s money. The recent scandal involving Satyam Computer Services* is instructive in learning about the various kinds of illegalities that such software companies can indulge in: under-invoicing; registering in tax havens; creating fictitious employment records; diverting funds to other companies owned by the same owner; funding politicians; buying real estate; and so on.
*Satyam was one of the high-flying software companies of India and an exemplary one, according to the government and the business community. It was controlled by the highly respected Raju family of Andhra Pradesh. In January 2008, Mr. Raju of Satyam, the chairperson, stunned everyone when he admitted to committing massive fraud against the public over the years. Apparently, the company was defrauded of Rs 7,000 crore ($1.5 billion) but the final tally could be larger. The loss to the shareholders and employees was a multiple of this sum.
Mr. Raju claimed that Satyam was operating with margins of 3 to 4 percent, when for comparable software companies, they were in the range of 25 percent. Was Mr. Raju lying under the auspices of telling the truth? The puzzle is that Satyam should have had higher profit margins, but its owner, Mr. Raju, claimed that it had lower margins, thereby willingly implicating himself in fraud. Was he trying to cover up a bigger fraud?
In India, there have been concessions in taxation on profits from exports. So, it may pay to divert profits from a company that is not entitled to tax concessions to another group company that is entitled to tax concessions, and thereby save on tax payments. Mr. Raju was siphoning funds from Satyam to sister companies dealing in real estate.
To take advantage of the provisions for exports, they have to be over-invoiced. Hence, more foreign exchange has to be brought into the country than has been earned. This way, undeclared wealth held outside the country or profits of other companies transferred out of the country through hawala are brought back – that is, reverse hawala.
Satyam tried to buy its sister companies at high and inflated prices. So, its fictitious bank accounts, worth Rs 7,000 crores, would have been drawn down and money transferred to the owners of the sister companies, that is, to themselves, and then there would have been no one to ask where the money went. So, using book transfers, the earlier transferring out of funds would have been covered up and the false entries of the bank balances and fixed deposits reversed/ set right.
Satyam was forced to reverse its decision to buy the sister companies by the investment bankers who approached SEBI (stock exchange regulator) with the story of the non-existent balance in the banks. There was little time to bring back other undeclared funds, and perhaps due to the global crisis of 2008, they became stuck. Since the funds did not exist in the Satyam bank accounts, Mr. Raju had to cover up by saying that the actual profitability of Satyam was lower and that he had been inflating profits for years.
The Satyam affair points to the scheming practices adopted by crooked Indian businesses – siphoning profits, fudging muster rolls, the cozy relations with politicians and bureaucrats, and finally, manipulating bankers, “independent” auditors, and “independent” directors. Mr. Raju’s admission has brought into question the notion of a “respectable” or “honest” businessman.




As already mentioned above, hawala is active in India. It is not regulated by the Central Bank. It is used to transfer funds within the country and outside of it. Since it deals purely in cash, large sums of money are moved from the premises where hawala operates. The police and the intelligence agencies know of these places, but they do not act because of the high-level political protection available to the hawala operators. The top politicians in power also know of them, since they use this channel, but they do not act against these hawala operators either out of self-interest. Thus, what is known privately is not known officially. The hawala channels are used by organized crime units to transfer money around the country and outside of it. Terrorists, drug dealers, and others use these channels because of the anonymity they provide.
In summary, due to existence of the Triad, all kinds of illegal activities and crime flourish in India. The common man is helpless in the face of these powerful people.


4. Global economic flows and routes
Local criminal activities described above have been linked to transnational crimes through terrorism; the printing and circulation of counterfeit currencies; the operation of hawala; the production and distribution of narcotic drugs; arms-trafficking; and the smuggling of electronic items, gold, and gems. As discussed in section II, in all these cases, the neighboring countries – and at times their secret services – are involved. The profits from these activities help finance terrorism and destabilize the nation.
Myanmar was a closed nation till recently and there has been much ethnic conflict. Thus, it was easy to move narcotic drugs through these territories into India’s northeast, where separatist movements were taking place. Similarly, Bangladesh has been another porous border through which human trafficking have been taking place and where terrorist movements have found sanctuary. They also became conduits for organized crime.
Conflict in Afghanistan since the beginning of the 1970s has led to power rivalries. The Western nations armed the Taliban – fundamentalist Muslims – to fight the Soviet forces that entered Afghanistan to help the left-leaning regime that came to power by dethroning the King there. Soon, Afghanistan became the Vietnam of the Soviets and they had to eventually withdraw, leaving the Taliban in charge. But by then, Afghanistan was awash with weapons supplied by the West. Afghanistan was also known for its production of narcotic drugs. When the central power weakened and regional warlords emerged, the Taliban smuggled weapons and narcotic drugs to enrich themselves.
A nexus emerged between the Taliban and the Muslim fundamentalists in Pakistan. This impacted the separatist movement in Kashmir and also became a major source of financing Muslim fundamentalism in India. In the process, India became a route for transnational crime. This was facilitated by a corrupt bureaucracy and the police.
An amnesty was given to smugglers in 1983 so that they could come into the mainstream. But this led to the entry of criminals into politics, or at least their more active participation in politics. Before they had financed politicians but remained largely in the background. The Triad now had criminals in it – either the businessman or the politician in the Triad had criminal backgrounds. As criminals entered the legislatures, the rule of law weakened. They manipulated the police, the bureaucracy, and the judiciary to get favorable decisions and also interfered more blatantly in decision-making.
Smugglers developed links with organized crime abroad to carry on their activities systematically. These links also required them to be in touch with hawala operators, who did not distinguish between clean (but illegal) money and dirty money. So they transferred the money of terrorists just as often as that of businessmen under-invoicing exports. In fact, the gold smugglers often needed foreign currency to buy gold for smuggling into India, and they got it from narcotic drug rings that needed to send funds to finance their activities in India. Thus, many inter-linkages developed.
Smuggling was driven by the chance to make easy money, since custom duties were high for the import of luxury goods, liquor, tobacco products, gold, and gems. It required corrupting the customs officials and the politicians. Airports and ports turned into dens of corruption with all kinds of illegal activities taking place. Very complex importing rules were deliberately set up so that the misclassification of goods and services was possible. The threat of harassment is an important driver for the willingness to bribe the official machinery.
In India, laws on paper differ substantially from the way law is practiced. Being in power implies the ability to offer favors for utilitarian considerations. For instance, traffic rules are violated with impunity, especially by those in power. When the average citizen gets caught, they offer a small bribe to the police to be let off. Hence, traffic on the roads is chaotic. A driving license can be obtained without taking a test. This is symptomatic of all rules and laws in the country. The honest get harassed while the dishonest make money or jump the queues.
It is the Triad that has facilitated systematic illegality in the country and – as it has strengthened over time – it has spread. The individual citizen is not able to resist and is more willing to make bribes and commit illegal acts. The Triad takes advantage of this by pushing for more illegality. In the process, people have moved from collective action to individual action and weakened democracy in the country. With the Triad functioning unhindered, international organized crime gangs have also found it easy to penetrate into India and set up operations.

5. Consequences for victims, outlook and impacts on the rule of law
The consequences of the growing black economy have been that development has been set back due to widespread policy failure. Kumar (2005) shows that the Indian economy has been losing 5 percent rate of growth since the mid 1970s due to the growing black economy. Today, the Indian economy could already have become the second largest economy in the world. Income distribution is highly skewed against the poor, and this is having an adverse social impact. India has the largest number of poor people in the world as well as malnourished children and women, illiterate people, and sick people.
The state is considered to be weak and unable to carry out its mandate. The institutions of democracy (e.g., legislature, judiciary) have been weakened due to all of this and there is a feeling that the nation lacks social justice. Thus, today, every section of society is trying to gain something at the expense of others. This has resulted in massive conflicts in society and often chaotic conditions. The political structures are badly fragmented, whereby there are a few hundred political parties, each jostling for its space and share of power, which is exercised not for the national good but for the section it represents. Thus, faith in the nation has weakened.
The poor face a criminal environment and live insecure lives. Their children often engage in various kinds of illegal activities and get into drugs, smoking, and other addictive behaviors. Women engage in other kinds of illegal activities and have to bear a double burden of taking care of the home as well as working outside.
Black economies lead to both higher costs of production with lower quality and to environmental damage. Thus, the rate of inflation is higher than it need be and health costs rise due to increased levels of diseases and low capacities to fight them. Corruption in the medical profession adds to health costs, and as a result, the poor often fall below the poverty line when treating a major illness in the family.
Tackling the black economy is the key to making a dent in crime, whether national or transnational. Since India’s independence, dozens of committees and commissions have looked at the problem of the black economy (and its various aspects) in the country. They have made thousands of suggestions and hundreds have been implemented: reducing tax rates; reducing controls and regulations; demonetization of high denomination currency; voluntary disclosure schemes; bearer bond schemes; acquisition of undervalued property; and so on. There are already enough laws to check corruption; the problem is that they are not implemented. Intelligence about organized crime exists, but no action is taken since top businessmen and politicians are involved. So the problem is not a technical one, and the size of the black economy has increased in spite of the steps taken to check its growth. The issue is one of political will, which is non-existent.
It is crucial to have political movements that would strengthen democracy and bring about accountability among the members of the Triad. Movements on the right to information, judicial accountability, the right to education, the right to food, and the right to housing are all needed to strengthen democracy and bring about accountability in the political process. Movements centered around these issues have been created in the last two decades, and they may eventually change things for the better.

References
Government of India. 2011. Crime in India 2010. Ministry of Home Affairs, National Crime Records Bureau.
Government of India. 1971. Direct taxes enquiry report. Chairperson: Wanchoo.
Government of India. 1956. Direct tax reform: Report of a survey. Chairperson: Kaldor.
Kumar, A. 1999. The black economy in India. New Delhi: Penguin.
———. 2005. India’s Black Economy: The Macroeconomic Implications. South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies. Vol. 28, No.2. August 2005. Pp 249-263.
———. 2012. Indian economy since independence: Tracing the dynamics of colonial disruption in society. Forthcoming.
NIPFP (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy). 1985. Aspects of black economy in India. New Delhi: NIPFP.
Thakurdas, P. 1944. A plan of economic development for India. Bombay: The Commercial Printing Press.



* This paper is based on the author’s two books, The Black Economy in India (1999/2002) and Indian Economy since Independence: Tracing the Dynamics of Colonial Disruption in Society (2010)’.
[1] CESP – Centre for economic Studies and Planning, SSS – Studies of Social Systems, JNU – Jawaharlal Nehru University

Friday, November 2, 2012

Mirroring India’s Future: The Decline of Retailers and Farmers in Mexico

Mirroring India’s Future: The Decline of Retailers and Farmers in Mexico
Arun Kumar
Chairperson and Sukhamoy Chakravarty Chair Professor, CESP, SSS, JNU.

A computer systems analyst was the driver of the taxi which took me from the airport to the hotel in Mexico city. A cheerful English speaking man who talked about himself and his family’s woes in the hour it took to cover the 30 kms. He wanted to know about the global economic crisis so that he could figure out why things were bad in Mexico for people like him. He complained about unemployment and his inability to get the right job without connections - a fate his children also face. He put the blame on the US and its policies and corruption in society. These themes were repeated many a times during my week of stay in Mexico.
The taxi passed through many commercial and residential areas but no small shops were visible. There were big malls, automobile dealers, petrol stations, restaurants, pharmacy stores and car repair shops. I wondered if they were inside the colonies. A friend who had been posted in the Indian Embassy in the mid-1980s had mentioned that there were fruit stores everywhere and one could make a meal of fruits in the evening but such shops were no where in evidence. I speculated if this was the future of the Indian metropolises.
The absence of small stores was perplexing but more intriguing was the serious unemployment given that Mexico has been a part of NAFTA since 1994 and which brought in much foreign investment, many factories have relocated from the US to Northern Mexico to supply the US and Canadian markets and so on. The city was bustling with cars and it is prosperous compared to India with a per capita income ten times ours. There are layers of flyovers one on top of the other but there were traffic jams. During day time, it takes 2 – 3 hours to cover a distance that takes 25 minutes early in the morning. Public transport system consists of rail, buses and trams but people are stuck in traffic for a good part of their day. The city has to spread horizontally since it is built on land fill and there is lots of water below the surface. Thus, multi-storeyed buildings require expensive deep foundations. So, most buildings are one or two stories high and that has forced the city of 25 million to spread out.
Old timers remember that Mexico city had small stores till the mid 1980s. Only the organized sector stores survive now, like, the Sanborn chain belonging to Mr. Slim, the richest man in the world. Sanborn has had a unique model of a restaurant on the first floor and a gift shop, pharmacy and other such conveniences on the ground floor. The young I talked to did not remember any time when there were corner stores in the residential colonies. From the Hotel window, perched 8 floors up, I could see malls but no small stores. Sears, Walmart, McDonalds and so on were all there like, anywhere in the USA. In residential colonies, I did see a few small stores but most of them were American `Seven Eleven’ stores. But, there are pavement stalls and markets where the poor purchase their necessities. It was ironic to see the workers in ties from the malls cross the street to eat at the pavement stalls – perhaps they could not afford to eat in the mall.
On a visit to the charming centre of town it was refreshing to see streets lined with small stores. My escort told me that many people came here to shop because it was cheaper here then in the malls. I found a sweet shop named Cellaya established in 1874, much like our Halwai shops. It had the equivalent of kaju, pista and badam barfis, but very expensive.
I went outside Mexico city to Teotihuacan to see the Pyramids. The huge pyramid of the Sun god is apparently a few times larger than the biggest Egyptian pyramids. It was a part of an ancient city 2,000 years back which was over 3 miles long and had more than 1.5 lakh people. All this was awe inspiring but it was tiring because it involved hours of walking and climbing up and down. At the end of it all we went to the neighbouring town to eat. At its entrance over the road there was a beautiful arch which announced `Teotihuacan Pueblo con Encanto’. There the streets were lined with small stores.
The next day I visited the village Tlalnepantla in Morelos. I counted dozens of small shops for a population of a few thousand. This is a revolutionary village. Alvaro, our host, was an economics graduate who settled down here 40 years back. He does Nopal (cactus) cultivation along with the rest of the villagers. His small garden at the house had trees bearing guava, avacados, lime, lukat and so on. He has successfully experimented with creating a village republic. It was amazing to see the hilly village surrounded by 4,000 hectares of Nopal cultivation. Even more breathtaking was the clear view of the distant volcano from which a plume of smoke emanated.
The village rejected the corrupt political parties. They selected their own leader and did not recognize the president of the municipality, a party man. The government sent in troops declaring Alvaro and others as terrorists and they had to go underground. There were protests all over Mexico and especially in the Universities. The government was forced to drop the charges and come to an agreement. Land here belongs to the community and cannot be sold to outsiders. Hearing that an Indian professor was visiting the village, its leaders came with lunch and cactus products - cooked as vegetable, turned into pickle and marmalade– very delicious. Alvero asked about Gandhi, his philosophy of non-violence and how it could be applied in modern society. Gandhi seems to have a special place in Mexico. A chain of book stores is called `Gandhi’. There are parks and roads named after Gandhi.
The farmers are upset with the USA and NAFTA. They complained that the free market had enabled subsidized food to come from the US and destroyed their agriculture which now contributes only 4% of GDP. Thus, the two big employers, agriculture and retail trade have suffered in the last two decades and that is why unemployment is high (5.2%) but underemployment maybe 25%. I met a professor who said his son got a job only because of his connections and another said his son doing a Ph.D. is worried about the future. Why is this happening with so much foreign investment? This unemployment has driven down wages so that a starting Asst Prof in the University complained that he barely makes ends meet with his salary determined by the number of lectures he gives in the month. He thought that the taxi driver was better off than himself.
Worse, in Northern Mexico where investments from the US have poured in, Mafia has taken over and there is lawlessness. There the state seems to be withering away. Unemployed youth joins the Mafia. There is drug trafficking and illegal migration of youth into the US. It is this migration that has kept unemployment from getting worse. The migrants send money back home. So, remittances along with income from petroleum exports and tourism keep the Mexican economy afloat and prevent the crisis from deepening.
The proximity to the US, free trade with it and the investments from there have instead of solving Mexico’s problems led to a deepening crisis of unemployment, decline of traditional agriculture and to the demise of small retailers in metro cities. I wondered whether what I was seeing in Mexico was India fast forwarded twenty years, when the Metros will see lots of cars and traffic jams, unemployment, malls but few small retail stores and agriculture in crisis. Small stores are likely to survive in small towns and villages.
Our crisis is likely to be worse than Mexico’s since we do not border the largest economy in the world where our youth could illegally migrate nor are we likely to get investment in per capita terms matching what Mexico has got nor do we have petroleum or tourism income to prop us up. So, does Mexico mirror a part of our future if we continue with our current policies? What the mirror does not reflect maybe even bleaker because we are not Mexico.


Sunday, September 23, 2012

The Growing Divide between Economics and Politics in India

The Growing Divide between Economics and Politics in India
Arun Kumar
Chairperson and Sukhamoy Chakravarty Chair Professor, CESP,SSS, JNU.
Mainstream.

Government has gone for a slew of `reforms’ and drawn strong protest from people and the political parties both in UPA and outside it. The package consists of raising of price of diesel, restricting LPG cylinder supply at subsidized prices to 6 per annum per family and allowing FDI in aviation sector and in multi-brand retail trading (MBRT). The first step is inflationary since it will immediately impact all prices through the cascading effect. In the current scenario of high inflation it can only further damage the ruling political party. According to the government, liberalization of foreign investment will boost investments and raise the rate of growth of the economy. Quarter after quarter the rate of industrial growth has not only been falling but even been negative in some of the quarters.
Foreign investment, hardly a few per cent of the total investment in the economy, cannot change this trend. Even if it rises, that will take time to materialize and, therefore, cannot have any immediate impact on the economic growth rate. Further, it is hardly a panacea for the ills of the industrial sector which is suffering from uncertainty due to corruption and declining exports. The stock markets have reacted positively but that cannot spur growth. Thus, the government is unlikely to derive any short term benefit from this policy. There will be the cosmetic effect that the charge of policy paralysis may no more stick to UPAII and foreign press can no more criticize the PM of inaction.
There is no disagreement on the inflationary impact of the steps taken to reduce under recoveries in petro goods. This is justified on grounds of the need to control the fiscal deficit and the health of the petroleum sector. However, there is a sharp divide on the issue of allowing FDI in multi brand retail trade. The government had proposed it in November 2011 but withheld implementation due to the widespread opposition to it. It had said that it would consult everyone before implementing this policy. The current reaction suggests that there was inadequate consultation and that the step is being taken for some other reason.
The government claims that FDI in retail will boost the economy, provide large scale employment to youth, lead to lowering of consumer prices, better prices to the farmers, reduction in wastage in farm produce, improvements in technology and creation of infrastructure. It has been presented as a win-win situation for the nation. It is only supposed to be anti-middlemen in the supply chain who squeeze both the farmers and the consumers. Traders are labelled as the vested interests who oppose this step. It is argued that the MNCs would not displace the neighbourhood stores which will continue to flourish. Finally, it is said that the Indian corporates are already operating in this sector and they have not wiped out the local stores.
Walmart, the largest multi-brand retailer in the world has been itching to enter the Indian markets and has had a tie up with the Mittals. Its global sales were over $400 billion in 2009 and it employed 2.1 million workers. In India, if the turnover of the retail trade is taken to be the personal consumption, it would be $650 billion in 2009 and this sector offered employment to at least 30 million. If companies like Walmart were to enter India and displace the existing retail stores, they would only employ 3 million workers for India’s current level of sales. This would not happen suddenly but the trend would be clear.
The small stores would not disappear immediately. To begin with their growth in sales volume would slow down as the sales of the big retailers rises. That is already the effect of  the emergence of the malls and the coming of the Indian big retailers like, Reliance and Big Bazaar. The crowds in these stores are at the expense of what could have been the clientele in the small stores. Does one see the poor in these stores? No, a huge segregation is taking place.
The government is touting an increase in investments in the retail sector to spur growth. But, as small stores begin to suffer, their rather substantial investments would slow down. One need go to any market in India, even in small towns and see how the neighbourhood stores have grown. The sleepy Khan Market has turned into a fancy shopping centre (mall without a common roof) in the heart of Delhi. Has all this happened without investment?
The government claims that the companies with FDI will have to source 30% from the MSME sector which will help the growth of this sector. But does the Indian retail sector which is likely to be displaced not source more than 30% of its supplies from the MSMEs? Further, given the global linkages of the MNCs, they are likely to buy more from outside the country than the Indian small retailers do and this will adversely affect demand.
Thus, whether it is employment generation or the amount of investment or the impact on MSME sector, one has to see the net effect of the entry of MNCs in multi-brand retail trade. In the case of employment and MSMEs, there would be an adverse effect and in the case of investment the net effect even if positive would be too small to boost growth.
The expected positive impact of elimination of middlemen for farmers will be illusory given that India has a large number of very small farmers (unlike in the USA) and big business would not be able to deal with them. Further, given the deep pockets of the MNCs, speculation in food prices in India would only increase. The states are being given the freedom whether to implement the policy or not. But once the MNCs are ensconced in Delhi would state capitals be able to resist? It has to be a national policy either way.
The proponents argue that there would be backward linkages with the setting up of infrastructure that is presently lacking and that new technology would be introduced in India. Did Amul not set up infrastructure for milk marketing? Have the Indian organized sector in retail not been creating infrastructure? What is the high technology that Indian retailers cannot set up or evolve in India? If Indian big business has not found it profitable to set up more infrastructure and supply chains then would MNCs find it profitable to do so?
Consider the entry of Pepsi Cola in India in 1988. It promised revolution in tomato and potato farming in India to produce potato chips and tomato ketchup. By 1992 it had invested Rs. 80 crores and was buying from 80 farmers only. When Coca Cola was allowed to enter India without any conditionalities then Pepsi also demanded that it be exempted from its promises. The lesson is that promises made to gain entry are hardly implemented.
Today, the USA and Europe face massive unemployment. How far have the MNCs in retail which dominate these markets helped in reducing it? Walmart is growing but wherever it has gone, employment has declined. In India, where under employment in the unorganized sectors is massive, entry of organized sector firms can only aggravate the situation. They will not employ the poor and ill educated labour working in the small neighbourhood retail stores. Thus, they may create some employment for the middle class, public school educated youth but what of others?
Given all these imponderables for the Indian economy why is the government pushing ahead with this policy, in spite of the disquiet in the public? Indian big business in retail has been tying up with MNCs through various means like, Private Equity (PE), FII and PN route. The black funds of the Indian big business and politicians (some of whom are big businessmen) has been `round tripped’ into India. Thus, the Indian political class and big business are interested in the entry of FDI so that they can bring their funds back. To them the threat of MNCs is secondary.
Genuine Indian big business will not be able to survive the competition because FDI will come via tax havens like, Mauritius and be exempt from taxes. The former would have to sell out to the latter whether of Indian or foreign hue. Is another potential scam brewing? In brief, the ruling class is acting on its own behalf while over looking the larger interest of the Indian people – this is the growing divide between politics and economics in India.


Saturday, July 7, 2012

Legality and Illegality in India: Black Economy, Illegal Activities and Money Laundering

Legality and Illegality in IndiaBlack Economy, Illegal Activities and Money Laundering
Arun Kumar
CESP, SSS, JNU.
Published in German as: "Tatort Arbeitsplatz". Grenzenlos Illegal – Transnationale organisierte Kriminalität. Böll.Thema 

The black economy in India is estimated to be about 50% of GDP, in other words, it adds to the GDP about $600 billion annually. Linked to this is the annual flight of capital from the country with about 15% of the annual generation of black incomes going out of the economy, that is, approximately $90 billion. According to a recent report of Global Financial Integrity based in Washington, India has lost about $462 billion of capital since independence (1947) with most of the sum going out in the period after 1991 when the New Econo0mic Policies were launched. According to the report and others this is an under estimate of the Indian capital illegally taken out of the country. In brief, a poor country has been exporting capital on a large scale leading to an accentuation of the shortage of foreign exchange and of capital in the country, thereby setting back development in the nation.
The black economy is generated in both illegal (mafia, drug trafficking, crime and so on) and legal activities. All incomes generated in illegal activities are by definition black whether they are high profits that should pay taxes or wages that are below the taxable limit. In the case of legal activities, incomes that ought to have been declared and tax paid on them but are not declared are black incomes. However, in the legal activities in India many incomes are below the taxable level, like, of wage earners and those in the informal sectors and therefore no tax is required to be paid on them. In such cases, whether declared on not these incomes cannot be treated as black incomes. Thus, as shown in Kumar (1999), black incomes in India are factor incomes that should have been declared to direct tax authorities but are not.
In India, the black economy affects every economic activity (industry, finance, agriculture and so on) in the country and all the elite sections of population (politicians, businessmen, executive, teachers, doctors and so on) are involved in it. For the generation of black incomes, some illegality has to be committed, that is, rules have to be bent. For instance, businessmen do not show the full income from their sales in their balance sheets and pay less of the various taxes, like, VAT, income tax and corporation tax, applicable to their production. Doctors do not reveal their full income from their practice and take illegal cuts from the testing laboratories where they send patients for tests or may sell organs illegally and so on. Teachers may increase the marks of students or leak out question papers to help students for a consideration. Policemen rather than check illegality collect a weekly payment (called `hafta’) from those committing illegality so that crime proliferates. Politicians bend policies for the favoured ones so as to give an advantage to them over their rivals and charge a consideration (a bribe or a cut) for that.
In brief, during the normal task of carrying out their daily economic activity, elite sections indulge in illegality. In the scams exposed recently top judges, top military men, top politicians, top businessmen and so on have been caught misusing their powers to earn illegitimate incomes which amount to black incomes.
The dividing line between illegality and legality is indeed thin because illegality is committed in the normal legal activities of people. Those earning black incomes try to make out that they are carrying out their economic activity in the routine way by masking their illegality. So a doctor who is supposed to recommend diagnostic tests may prescribe unnecessary tests so as to get a larger kickback from the testing laboratories. However, the patient can not make out that the test is unnecessary and would not like to take the risk of not going for the test lest something go wrong. The Obstetrician may go for a C-section delivery even if the normal delivery is possible so as to make more money for herself and the clinic/hospital. The patient going through the labour pains is in no position to judge whether a normal delivery was feasible or not.
There is a large amount of black income generation in the financial sector because of the secrecy that operates in this sector. For instance, black incomes are converted to white incomes and vice versa via the book entry method in the stock markets. This is characterized as money laundering where dirty money is cleaned and put into legitimate activities. Similarly, bank accounts maybe opened and used for illegal funds transfer by circumventing the `know your customer’ (KYC) provisions of banking sector. The managers of banks connive in this because they are confident that they will not be caught given the secrecy. They have the discretionary powers to bend rules and they can do so for a consideration. Banks try to attract prized customers (big corporations and High Net Worth Individuals) from whom they can get large amount of businesses. For this they overlook the procedures and extend extra help which is often misused by businesses.
For the prized customers, the financial sector runs illegal services, like, helping them with transfer of funds to tax havens. In the recent financial collapse in 2008, failing banks were found to have hundreds of subsidiaries in tax havens. The only purpose of this could have been to help their clients to shift funds around via shell companies to escape taxation in their home countries or to launder their illegal funds. Thus, there is flight of capital from all countries, developed and developing, but perhaps the scale of such leakages is higher in the case of the developing countries and also they are net losers while the developed countries are net gainers so that the developing countries are characterized by flight of capital.
As the Financial Action Task Force Report of 1996 said, the volume of transactions in the financial system are huge so looking for the illegal transactions is looking for a needle in the haystack. In spite of the best efforts of the software experts, it has been impossible to trace the illegal transfers (a few trillion dollars) out of the hundreds of trillions of dollars of annual global transactions. This is an important aspect of the losing battle that national governments have fought against flight of capital and havala transfers.
The governments of tax haven countries are in league with the people trying to park illegal funds in the financial institutions under their jurisdiction. This is because it is a highly profitable business. Further, national governments in developing countries often connive in these activities since the top people are in league with those committing these illegalities. Why is that so?
For the black economy to be 50% of GDP in India and to be affecting all economic activities and to be prevalent amongst all the elite sections of society, it has to be systematic and systemic with laws systematically violated. It can not be ad-hoc or anecdotal, taking place some of the time and not at other times. So, in Delhi, building bye-laws are violated on a large scale and encroachment of public land has occurred on a vast scale. In this there is the connivance of the builders, politicians, bureaucrats, policemen and so on. That is, all those in charge of the law of the land are a party to it and each one of them makes an extra income by allowing the illegality to occur.
In brief, there is an underlying triad which operates to allow systematic illegality to take place. It has been suggested that the criminal has become a part of the nexus in the last three decades. Either the politician or the businessman is a criminal. Thus, a large number of politicians and elected representatives have cases against them. This has led to the spread of criminalization in society and resistance to illegality has weakened amongst the people and also the official machinery. Regulatory agencies (say, intelligence agencies, police men, inspectors and so on) have weakened due to their involvement in illegality. They are used to put a cover on the illegalities of their masters, the top businessmen, politicians and bureaucrats and so they indulge in this in the routine way and also do some small illegalities for lesser people.
Those in power are the ones indulging in illegality under the garb of acting within the law. Hence they are not interested in solving the problem of growing black economy and illegality in society. They benefit from it and encourage it. They have private information about how the black economy functions but are not interested in tackling it since that would hurt their interest. They make a pretence of solving the problem by changing rules and making new laws but all of them are subverted to find new ways of making black incomes.
In India, at least 40 Committees and Commissions have looked into the different aspects of the black economy over the last sixty years and have made thousands of suggestions and hundreds of them have been implemented but the black economy continues to proliferate. Thus, it is not that the policy maker does not know what should be done to tackle the problem but the political will is lacking amongst the elite sections because of their self interest. In this sense, the problem is a political one and one of weak democracy where those who are in power are not accountable to the people of the country. That is why the Right to Information is an important tool to fight illegality and black economy – it undermines secrecy. In India it has been implemented in a diluted way after 2005 and has produced some results and in the long run it holds hope of achieving much by narrowing the gap between legality and illegality.