Share Market Gyrations: Thwarting National Policy Making
Arun Kumar
The Tribune, October 29, 2007
The share market has been giving the investors the jitters. Few know which way it would go next. Recently, after touching a peak of 19,198.66, the BSE index came down to 17,559.98 and more such fluctuations are in store. This was not unexpected given the rapid rise of the index in the preceding 2 months and especially in the preceding 2 weeks. Investors were getting used to hearing that the index had climbed by 1,000 points in 6 or in 4 trading sessions. It was a bullish market which seemed to have no stops. The media and specially the pink papers with screaming headlines were egging the investors on with stories of investor wealth going up by lakhs of crores and how Indian businessmen were becoming the wealthiest individuals in the world – and all this in a space of a few months. Heady stuff for a country which is still one of the poorest country in the world and 50th from the bottom in HDI ranking. Greed had been raised to a new high pedestal.
The news has been that foreign funds were investing heavily in the Indian markets. They are supposed to be attracted by the rising value of the rupee vis-à-vis the dollar and the high returns being offered by the Indian companies. There are several components of this flow from foreign shores. Rising oil prices have resulted in growing surpluses with the oil exporting countries and they have been looking for avenues to invest. Since the dollar has been declining, they are wary of parking all their funds in the US and in dollar securities so they have been looking for alternatives. The Indian markets which have been rising because its corporate sector has seen a massive surge of profits seem to provide a safe haven of high returns. What could be better than this?
The second component of this flow is the NRI funds which is also looking for diversification of portfolios for much the same reason. Till recently, they brought only little of their savings back to the country but now they are doing so in bigger amounts. According to the just released World Bank report, India is now the largest recipient of non resident transfers in the World. The third component is the flows from the high export earners like China who are also looking for safer havens and diversification to park their surpluses and reserves. China and Japan have over a trillion dollars of reserves which till recently were mostly in dollar related securities. The fourth component is the movements of funds by terrorist organizations, money launderers and smugglers, etc. Apart from continuing their political/business agendas in the country, they are also seeking diversification of their financial operations.
In the Indian context, the Participatory Note (PN) route which is a financial instrument operated by the FIIs has provided a new way of investing in the Indian markets in which the investors identity remains a secret. The secrecy is required since there is illegality and possibly criminality associated with these funds. About 50% of the FII funds now belong to this category. India’s National Security Advisor has expressed worry over the operations of illegal money and terrorists through the bourses, to channel funds not only for their own use but also perhaps to destabilize the economy at some point. RBI has expressed worry about this phenomenon and now the SEBI has followed suit.
This route has also been useful for the Indian politicians, businessmen and other corrupt people to bring back their black savings stocked abroad over the last many decades. They can whiten their money through this device. That is why the Indian establishment has not touched this route in spite of the ill effects it is having on the Indian economy in recent times. The Indian businesses have had another important reason to bring back their money, namely, to invest in their own businesses given the need to protect themselves from hostile takeovers. Further, as for others, of late, dollar havens are not all that safe or lucrative as compared to the home market.
Finally, the real estate boom in the last three years has peaked and some funds are being withdrawn from there to be parked in the rising share markets. In other words, quite a conjuncture of factors have fuelled the boom.
The Indian stock markets have been known for severe manipulations by the owners of companies, financiers and brokers who indulge in insider trading and fixing of prices (For an account of this, see this author’s book, The Black Economy in India published in 1999 by Penguin India). It is suspected that the recent boom has come in handy for such unscrupulous elements to take advantage and raise prices further. Often, owners of companies that are not doing well use this device to manipulate the price of their stocks and make huge sums of monies at the expense of the gullible small investors. Media is cynically used to plant stories. All this has been noticed in the past three stock market booms in the last 16 years. Something similar seems to be happening again.
Why do prices not shoot up like this in the mature economies? The reason is that the Indian markets are rather narrow. The organized sector of the Indian economy is less than 50% of the economy and employs only about 6% of the work force. If government is taken out of this, the rest would be the corporate sector which is broadly represented in the stock markets. Thus, the private corporate sector is not more than 30% of the national output and employs only 2% of the work force.
Further, the ownership of this sector rests with less than 0.1% of the population. The public owns only about 10% of the shares of the corporate sector. The vast bulk being held by promoters, FIIs, financial institutions and the like. In fact, a large part of the FII holding also belongs to the friends of the promoters so that no threat of takeover emerges. In companies like WIPRO or Infosys, the number of stock holders is less than a few thousand and the owners and FIIs own around 90% of the equity stock.
The result is small floating stock of shares (especially of the good companies) in the Indian markets and little relationship with the larger economy so that small infusion of funds can cause large price changes. This along with the above mentioned manipulations make the Indian markets volatile. This is compounded by the fact that the return on stocks is largely made up of capital gains and not dividend. Thus, if the market stops rising the expected return becomes very small and then it is not worth investing. In other words, when prices change rapidly, there is no stable resting point for the stock markets. A rapid rise invariably leads to an equally rapid opposite movement. Fluctuating markets do not move with the fundamentals. In fact, most of the time, they are not in sync.
The increase in wealth associated with the stock market book is notional. It is based on small amount of trades and does not correspond to any real increase in wealth. This causes imbalances in the economy because it is concentrated in the hands of less than 0.1% of the economy and spells danger for the country with vast sections getting marginalized and instability in society rising. It results in devaluation of work and weakening of democracy.
In brief, the PN story and the market gyrations suggest that the Indian markets are substantially driven by government policies as manipulated by vested interests. Today, they exercise their influence as members of Parliament, Ministers and member of advisory boards of legislative and governmental bodies. These interests have become accustomed to having things their way so even a slight disturbance comes as a rude shock, like, the news that PN story may be coming to an end because it is not good for the vast majority of Indians. Under the circumstances, can good policy or national policy making other than what suits these vested interests make sense?
nuramarku@gmail.com
Monday, October 29, 2007
Thursday, September 13, 2007
The Share Market and The Reality Check
The Share Market and the Reality Check
Arun Kumar
CESP/SSS, JNU.
The Tribune, September 13, 2007.
The Stock Market in India has been going through a roller coaster. After rising sharply for a few months and reaching a peak on July 24 (Sensex, 15,869), it started fluctuating. It dropped sharply on July 27 (542 points), August 1(615 points) and then on August 16 (643 points). These have been the biggest 3 falls but there have been others, like on August 21, 2007 (438 points). The investor is breathless not knowing which way to go. Some, like the SEBI chief have argued that there is nothing to worry or the Finance Minister has reiterated that the economy is doing well (implying, nothing to worry). The investor is sought to be convinced that the fundamentals of the economy are good and that there is no need to panic.
It is clear that the crisis has hit suddenly, something even the FM or the RBI were not able to anticipate. The recent RBI Report in July made no mention of any such possibility. If those with all the economic intelligence at their command, could not read the coming events, can the investor do better? All this is reminiscent of occurrences in the last 16 years when many have lost heavily. Can the assurance that the fundamentals are good be believed? Two important points need to be kept in mind.
First, the stock market is not always directly linked to the fundamentals of the economy. If it was, with the fundamentals being good, as the Finance Minister and the experts say, why the repeated sharp fall? Compared to the July 24 peak on August 21, 2007, it was down by 12%. Now it is recovering.
The stock market is essentially based on short run expectations. Some expect it to rise and buy to make a gain (the bulls) while others expect it to fall so they sell to make a profit (the bears). At any given time, there are bulls and bears operating to keep the market in equilibrium. If no one is buying (no bulls), the market would collapse as happened on the manic Monday last year. If there are no sellers (no bears) the market would rise sharply. Further, a bull in the morning may be a bear the afternoon. The positions keep switching because of the changing expectations. If the market has risen sharply, some begin to expect it to fall and turn bearish and vice versa.
Short term factors, like, a CBDT circular, the news of FII withdrawing or instability of government move markets. Long term features of the economy and politics also have a bearing but these signals are read in the immediate context and often there are over reactions. For instance, what would be the effect of reservations on the corporate sector or whether the left front is going to push the UPA government harder in the context of the nuclear deal?
What role do the economic fundamentals play? The stock market reflects the health of the corporate sector but they constitute 30% of the output of the economy. Indirectly, this may also reflect the health of the overall economy but often not. Till July 24, when the market rose sharply, it was unaffected by the growing social unrest in the country, increasing criminalization, rising unemployment or the farmers committing suicide. Currently, the declines are due to the failure of the sub prime loans market in the USA which has little to do directly with the Indian economy or its fundamentals.
Even if the fundamentals are important there is no particular level of the stock market indices that is commensurate with a given level of the fundamentals? There is no one to one correspondence between the two. The Harshad Mehta induced boom in 1992 was co-terminus with a sharp decline in the rate of growth of the economy. Similar was the case during the Ketan Parikh induced boom. Yes, the economy has grown at about 8% in the last three years. Does that justify a 250% rise in the stock market indices? The corporate sector profits have risen sharply by about 30% but even that does not justify the rise.
In effect, the sharp rise in the indices has meant that the market has been going out of sync with reality. Consequently, average returns on the stocks have been falling. Why do the investors still invest? Because of the expected capital gains. In a bull market, it is the expected capital gain that drives investments. This is an unstable situation. If the rate of rise of the market slows down, the rate of return falls and the investors start turning into bears. The market tends to reverse gear. The big players with their analysts, control over chunks of stocks and association with brokers are able to see the signs and retrieve some of their positions. Usually in a boom, greed brings in small investors and they are the ones to suffer the losses when the market falls.
The market mostly consists of the big fish. According to published data, in 2004-05 only 1,40,000 individuals bought shares worth more than Rs. 1 lakh – a mere 0.00001 % of the population. Public holding of the shares of the stock markets is hardly a few per cent. Over 80% is held by the big investors. Thus, the small investors are marginal to the market and they tend to get locked in. The losses for the big investors are mostly on paper. The higher valuation during the boom reverses when the market falls but the original capital is usually intact and they periodically book profits.
The second issue is that in times of turbulence, no one is able to predict the market given the uncertainty, the manipulations by the big investors and insider trading. In the case of the sub-prime market collapse, the Federal Bank of the USA was also caught off guard. After the event, many now argue that the bomb was ticking but few predicted it, certainly not the Federal Bank. Indian markets are getting affected because some FIIs are withdrawing money to shore up their US operations which are the more important ones for them. In this situation where do the fundamentals of the Indian economy enter the picture?
In most situations of decline of the stock markets even the finance ministry cannot predict what will happen (otherwise it would take corrective steps). What it usually does is to put pressure on the financial institutions, like, on public sector banks and insurance companies to support the market to prevent a drastic fall. No wonder, the public financial institutions suffer in the process (as happened earlier to the UTI which collapsed). This may be taking place now also.
This is the key to the problem of the Indian small investors. Today, the government’s economic performance is judged by the rise in the stock markets. The Ministry has signaled to the operators that they can be bulls without worry since the ministry would send signals to the right places to support the market, if it falls. The ministry has been favouring the market by diluting capital gains tax and eliminating the dividend and the wealth taxes. But these are precisely the instruments that used to keep speculative activity in check. In their absence, boom and bust are bound to be aggravated. To be successful, one has to successfully predict what the majority will do - know the minds of the FIIs and those indulging in insider trading. No small investor with a little bit of savings can easily do this, so the stock market is not for them.
What the government does not seem to factor in is that the speculative activity in the stock market affects other investments adversely. We need investments in agriculture, small scale industry and physical infrastructure but if one can make money in the short run then why invest in the real economy and get a return much later? A steady market is better all around than a volatile one but the present policies are an anti-thesis of this.
In brief, the US sub prime market, liquidity problems, political turmoil due to the Congress - Left disagreement on the nuclear issue are important to explain the stock market instability but the reality check is the speculation induced by the policy makers to gain brownie points with finance capital.
nuramarku@gmail.com.
Arun Kumar
CESP/SSS, JNU.
The Tribune, September 13, 2007.
The Stock Market in India has been going through a roller coaster. After rising sharply for a few months and reaching a peak on July 24 (Sensex, 15,869), it started fluctuating. It dropped sharply on July 27 (542 points), August 1(615 points) and then on August 16 (643 points). These have been the biggest 3 falls but there have been others, like on August 21, 2007 (438 points). The investor is breathless not knowing which way to go. Some, like the SEBI chief have argued that there is nothing to worry or the Finance Minister has reiterated that the economy is doing well (implying, nothing to worry). The investor is sought to be convinced that the fundamentals of the economy are good and that there is no need to panic.
It is clear that the crisis has hit suddenly, something even the FM or the RBI were not able to anticipate. The recent RBI Report in July made no mention of any such possibility. If those with all the economic intelligence at their command, could not read the coming events, can the investor do better? All this is reminiscent of occurrences in the last 16 years when many have lost heavily. Can the assurance that the fundamentals are good be believed? Two important points need to be kept in mind.
First, the stock market is not always directly linked to the fundamentals of the economy. If it was, with the fundamentals being good, as the Finance Minister and the experts say, why the repeated sharp fall? Compared to the July 24 peak on August 21, 2007, it was down by 12%. Now it is recovering.
The stock market is essentially based on short run expectations. Some expect it to rise and buy to make a gain (the bulls) while others expect it to fall so they sell to make a profit (the bears). At any given time, there are bulls and bears operating to keep the market in equilibrium. If no one is buying (no bulls), the market would collapse as happened on the manic Monday last year. If there are no sellers (no bears) the market would rise sharply. Further, a bull in the morning may be a bear the afternoon. The positions keep switching because of the changing expectations. If the market has risen sharply, some begin to expect it to fall and turn bearish and vice versa.
Short term factors, like, a CBDT circular, the news of FII withdrawing or instability of government move markets. Long term features of the economy and politics also have a bearing but these signals are read in the immediate context and often there are over reactions. For instance, what would be the effect of reservations on the corporate sector or whether the left front is going to push the UPA government harder in the context of the nuclear deal?
What role do the economic fundamentals play? The stock market reflects the health of the corporate sector but they constitute 30% of the output of the economy. Indirectly, this may also reflect the health of the overall economy but often not. Till July 24, when the market rose sharply, it was unaffected by the growing social unrest in the country, increasing criminalization, rising unemployment or the farmers committing suicide. Currently, the declines are due to the failure of the sub prime loans market in the USA which has little to do directly with the Indian economy or its fundamentals.
Even if the fundamentals are important there is no particular level of the stock market indices that is commensurate with a given level of the fundamentals? There is no one to one correspondence between the two. The Harshad Mehta induced boom in 1992 was co-terminus with a sharp decline in the rate of growth of the economy. Similar was the case during the Ketan Parikh induced boom. Yes, the economy has grown at about 8% in the last three years. Does that justify a 250% rise in the stock market indices? The corporate sector profits have risen sharply by about 30% but even that does not justify the rise.
In effect, the sharp rise in the indices has meant that the market has been going out of sync with reality. Consequently, average returns on the stocks have been falling. Why do the investors still invest? Because of the expected capital gains. In a bull market, it is the expected capital gain that drives investments. This is an unstable situation. If the rate of rise of the market slows down, the rate of return falls and the investors start turning into bears. The market tends to reverse gear. The big players with their analysts, control over chunks of stocks and association with brokers are able to see the signs and retrieve some of their positions. Usually in a boom, greed brings in small investors and they are the ones to suffer the losses when the market falls.
The market mostly consists of the big fish. According to published data, in 2004-05 only 1,40,000 individuals bought shares worth more than Rs. 1 lakh – a mere 0.00001 % of the population. Public holding of the shares of the stock markets is hardly a few per cent. Over 80% is held by the big investors. Thus, the small investors are marginal to the market and they tend to get locked in. The losses for the big investors are mostly on paper. The higher valuation during the boom reverses when the market falls but the original capital is usually intact and they periodically book profits.
The second issue is that in times of turbulence, no one is able to predict the market given the uncertainty, the manipulations by the big investors and insider trading. In the case of the sub-prime market collapse, the Federal Bank of the USA was also caught off guard. After the event, many now argue that the bomb was ticking but few predicted it, certainly not the Federal Bank. Indian markets are getting affected because some FIIs are withdrawing money to shore up their US operations which are the more important ones for them. In this situation where do the fundamentals of the Indian economy enter the picture?
In most situations of decline of the stock markets even the finance ministry cannot predict what will happen (otherwise it would take corrective steps). What it usually does is to put pressure on the financial institutions, like, on public sector banks and insurance companies to support the market to prevent a drastic fall. No wonder, the public financial institutions suffer in the process (as happened earlier to the UTI which collapsed). This may be taking place now also.
This is the key to the problem of the Indian small investors. Today, the government’s economic performance is judged by the rise in the stock markets. The Ministry has signaled to the operators that they can be bulls without worry since the ministry would send signals to the right places to support the market, if it falls. The ministry has been favouring the market by diluting capital gains tax and eliminating the dividend and the wealth taxes. But these are precisely the instruments that used to keep speculative activity in check. In their absence, boom and bust are bound to be aggravated. To be successful, one has to successfully predict what the majority will do - know the minds of the FIIs and those indulging in insider trading. No small investor with a little bit of savings can easily do this, so the stock market is not for them.
What the government does not seem to factor in is that the speculative activity in the stock market affects other investments adversely. We need investments in agriculture, small scale industry and physical infrastructure but if one can make money in the short run then why invest in the real economy and get a return much later? A steady market is better all around than a volatile one but the present policies are an anti-thesis of this.
In brief, the US sub prime market, liquidity problems, political turmoil due to the Congress - Left disagreement on the nuclear issue are important to explain the stock market instability but the reality check is the speculation induced by the policy makers to gain brownie points with finance capital.
nuramarku@gmail.com.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Sixty Years after Tryst with Destiny: Woh Subaha Kabhi to Aygi
Sixty Years after Tryst with Destiny: Woh Subaha Kabhi to Aygi
Arun Kumar, CESP, JNU.
Based on the Article, After `Tryst with Destiny’, Unending wait for the new dawn. The Tribune, 29.08.07.
Nehru’s `tryst with destiny’ suggested that India would wake up to a new day. The country has made substantial material progress since that fateful and historic day 60 years back. WE are consuming more of everything and poverty is supposed to have halved. But the freedom struggle had other goals as well. Countless people `sacrificed their today for a better tomorrow for us’. Have we achieved that better today? Was there not a different vision than the one that we have worked for? Doubts arise not only because mass poverty and illiteracy (though less) persist and insanitary conditions and ill health continue on a mass scale to take a heavy toll but because we hardly have a vision left except to follow the West. In the process we have perhaps got the worst of both the worlds.
In material terms, a few, numbering less than 3% of the population, have done well while the rest are trapped in a low level equilibrium. We boast of more billionaires than Japan while in terms of per capita income we are in the bottom twenty out of 177 nations. Since their per capita income is 60 times ours, crudely speaking, we must be at least 60 times more unequal. Is it something to gloat about. Largest number of people below the poverty line, farmers suicides, huge urban slums, fields in and around cities functioning as vast toilets, the inability of the so called literates to understand modern technology, etc., suggest that the nation as a whole has yet to awake to a new morning. The 3% affluent adding up to 33 million people, a good size European nation, are nested in a vast ocean of deprivation.
In the 1958 movie, `Phir Subaha Hogi’, Mukesh singing with pathos, “Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi” (That morning will come some time), epitomized the dream of the common Indian of the Fifties and the Sixties. Many of us as children internalized the idea that we will build a better future for all our countrymen and perhaps we would build a new civilization that would surpass the West. Sixty years after independence perhaps the shreds of this dream are not even left in the dustbins of those in power and supposedly guiding the destiny of this nation. That dream has been blown away in the hurricane of achieving 9% growth.
The song is not just about eliminating poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy but above all about a dream of building a different society – a peaceful one where everyone (specially the marginalized) would live with dignity. Gandhi emphasising “last Person First” suggested that if everyone could hold their head high, no one could subjugate the nation. For him that is what the national struggle was all about – dignity for all. Mukesh captures the present situation in the line, “Miti ka bhi kuch mol magar insano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin” (Even earth has some value but human beings have none).
The song defines that happy morning as “Jab ambar jhum ke nachega, Jab dharti nagme gayegi”. When the sky would dance with joy and the Earth would sing songs. Today, at our low per capita consumption, the air, water and land are terribly polluted and weeping rather than singing and dancing. The most revered Ganga or Godavari are heavily polluted, their beds contaminated with huge amounts of toxic material that would affect the future generations. Even the sacred is no more sacred, so what is sacrosanct? Certainly not the dream of the National Movement.
The song goes “Jab dukh ke badal pighlenge” (when the clouds of sorrow will melt). For the vast numbers of the marginalized sections, sorrow is a daily and endless fare that is not melting away. Dozens of their children can disappear in Nithari and little is done. The only escape is what Bollywood dishes out - sex and violence. The government provides little relief since it fails to deliver. Faith in politicians is a casualty. Further, “Insano ki izzat jab jhute sikkon me na toli jayegi” (when people’s dignity would not be measured by false money). The dignity of the poor is even more firmly mortgaged to money when unemployment is so high and the youth has to take to crime to fulfill its expectations. “Mana ki abhi tere mere armano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin”, (Agreed that today our dreams have no value). But there was belief, one day this would change. The dreams of the deprived have no value to the rulers who in their self centerdness can only see in them the means to fulfill their own narrow dreams of great riches, like, in the misallocation of land meant for the poor displaced slum dwellers of dwellers.
Today labour is devalued while speculation and greed have been raised to a new high pedestal. A mere 1% of the population linked to the corporate sector earns more than what 60%, dependent on agriculture, do. Disparities have risen more sharply in the last 6 years than in the earlier 54 years. The young are encouraged to sell soap but not to contribute to nation building through teaching and research. Sacrifice appears to be stupidity, undermining the entire effort of the freedom fighters. Those of them who still survive ruefully ask, is this what they fought for? Armed forces are losing officers and are understaffed since the private sector is so much more lucrative and why sacrifice since that is no more a virtue. Grab an opportunity if it presents itself – its right and wrong is immaterial – since the only surviving principle is `what suits me is correct’.
The 3%, the ruling elite of the nation aspire to join the international elite, sending its children to study college abroad, going there for vacations or to hospitals for health problems. It is voting with its feet. A school in Chappra or a dispensary in Ghungrawali has little value to it but Delhi must have 24 hours water and electricity. That is progress. Most of the elite, businessmen, corrupt politicians and the corrupt executive have spirited vast sums of money abroad. This is not just for a rainy day but for a possible new life in case of difficulties at home. The emotional attachment with the nation is gone. For the elite, making society better is too much of a struggle.
Going abroad to work is considered highly desirable by society and the young encouraged to do so. More H1B visas are asked for by the government so that the best can go abroad rather than serving the nation. The short sightedness of the vision underlying such a move by the government escapes the ruling elite. Already, the country lacks dynamism and this situation is aggravated by the best leaving the shores. This is reflected in the country having to import most modern technologies since it lacks the ability to develop them indigenously. Even in the defence field where national effort has been concentrated, we depend largely on imports. LCA has been under development for more than 20 years and MBT for 25 years. Commercial nuclear reactors are being imported, etc.
Due to a lack of proper vision, laboratories, Universities and colleges function like offices, 9 to 5. They are largely treated as fiefdoms by the powerful to grant favours to their sycophants. Talent be damned and dynamism is a casualty. We are happy to get low value added jobs in Call Centres and BPOs so that the youth can work as cyber coolies rather than working in highly skilled jobs. We are happy at producing 10,000 world class professionals out of the 10 million who join the work force every year. Most of the best then leave the shores to go abroad. What induced many earlier to return to the country was a vision of a different India. Now since that vision is transformed into making India a poor cousin of the West, why return to face some of the most uncivilized conditions in the world? Anyhow, why sacrifice – that is not today’s value.
Corruption is rampant both in the public and the private sectors. Institutions, like the legislatures, judiciary and the bureaucracy, are breaking down. The elite is lawless breaking every single law – from traffic laws to building bye-laws to industrial and environmental laws. Many of the rich have earned more through illegal means than legal ones. The black economy continues to grow and is roughly 50% of GDP in spite of reduced tax rates and elimination of many controls.
The political leaders hardly represent the people - leading a life of luxury. Democracy is a great institution but in India it has been turned into a fine art for self aggrandizement. The bankruptcy of our leadership led to our jettisoning of the ideas of independent development in the Eighties and of the `last person first’ in the Nineties.
From tall leaders like Gandhi who could give up everything to the present day leadership that cannot give up anything. From the idea of voluntary poverty to the notion of greed as the driving force of our society. From society and nation to the self. A JRD Tata or a Bacchan rated higher than Nehru (or many others) indicates the demise of a national vision and the fall from grace of visionaries. The transition has been made from an inclusive national vision for all to an exclusivist vision for a few. The situation echos the line in Mukesh’s song, “Miti ka bhi kuch mol magar insano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin” (Even earth has some value but human beings have none). Farmers commit suicide in increasing numbers and the rsponse s ineffective packages. In the new vision, making huge airports takes precedence over giving access to clean drinking water and toilets to all.
The land of Gandhi has turned into the land of the bania (not that he was not a bania). There is a great deal of hype about the Sixtieth year of Independence which was not there for the Fortieth or the Thirtieth and this is a reflection of the times when media hype and commercial interests dominate. Anything, including one’s shauhrat (fame) can be encashed – nothing wrong in it. Nothing matters any more – a Tendulkar finds greater satisfaction in advertisiing and running restaurants than attempting to better Don Bradman’s record.
The credit for this U-turn goes to the very party which Gandhi built. Clever ones would shamelessly argue, even Gandhi would have done the same in the present context. Would they consider that a man given to simplicity, sacrifice and truth and not show, half truths and consumerism would have blanched at this suggestion?
From the notion that the ills of our society have a social cause to the idea that the individual is to blame for her predicament, it is a long journey. Everyone now has to go to the market to get what they need, government is no more responsible for elimination of poverty, etc.. The devil may take the hindmost.
The nation can boast of many things in post independence India. A democracy – even if it barely functions under the weight of criminals and corrupt leaders sitting in the legislatures. Better position for some women even if they are now more of a commodity in the market than ever before. Better position for some Dalits even if their leaders are corrupt and repeatedly coopted by the elite. There is more sugar, more clothing and more milk per capita today than ever before but there is more adulteration of food and more lifestyle and pollution related disease than ever before. There are more educational institutions today but their quality is pitiful and hey sufer from rampant corruption. Where are the teachers who could be the ideals for the children to emulate? They would much rather go to coaching classes than spend time with children.
Some people with idealism survive who continue to fight in spite of adversity – carrying the dream forward. Nations are built on dreams but we have narrowed it to money making. So how do we build a great nation as `Nehru’s tryst’ suggested or to which Mukesh referred to in the song, “Jis subaha ki khatir yug yug se ham sab mar mar ke jite aiyen hain”. (That morning for whose sake from eons we all have been living by dying a thousand deaths). Gandhi had a dream for the nation that the party he helped build has shattered.
He perhaps saw what was coming so he wanted the party to dissolve itself so that this farce would not have occurred. He wanted the Rashtrapati Bhavan to be converted into a hospital not because that would have been very functional but because that would have given birth to many more dreams and prevented many of the freedom fighters from turning into rulers in the imperial mould. The lament is not that we have not achieved anything but that we could have done much better if we had stayed with the dream of the national movement which has now evaporated from the national consciousness. So Sixty years down the road we are still waiting for that new dawn in the midst of 9% growth. Today Mukesh would have to sing, `Who Subaha Abhi to Nahin Ayegi’.
nuramarku@gmail.com.
The song by Mukesh from the 1958 movie, `Phir Subaha Hogi”: Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Hindi Song
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
In kali sadiyon ke sar se
Jab rat ka anchal dhalke ga
Jab dukh ke badal pighlenge
Jab subaha ka sagar chalkega
Jab ambar jhum ke nachega
Jab dharti nagme gayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Jis subaha ki khatir yug yug se
hum sab mar mar ke jite aiyen hain
Jis subaha ki amrit bundon ki khatir
hum zahar ke pyale pite hain
In bhuki pyasi ruhon par ek din to karam farmeyga
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Mana ki abhi tere mere armano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin
Miti ka bhi kuch mol magar insano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin
Insano ki izzat jab jhute sikkon me na toli jayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
English Translation
That morning will come some time
When from the head of these black centuries
The scarf of night would slip away
When the clouds of sorrow will melt
When the ocean of morning would brim over
When the sky would dance with joy
When the Earth would sing songs
That morning will come some time
That morning will come some time
That morning for whose sake from eons
we all have been living by dying a thousand deaths
For the sake of the drops of elixir of that morning
we drink the cup of poison
One day fate will bless these thirsty and hungry souls
That morning will come some time
That morning will come some time
Agreed that at present the value of our dreams is nothing
Even earth has some value but human beings have none
When people’s dignity will not be weighed with false coins
That morning will come some time
Arun Kumar, CESP, JNU.
Based on the Article, After `Tryst with Destiny’, Unending wait for the new dawn. The Tribune, 29.08.07.
Nehru’s `tryst with destiny’ suggested that India would wake up to a new day. The country has made substantial material progress since that fateful and historic day 60 years back. WE are consuming more of everything and poverty is supposed to have halved. But the freedom struggle had other goals as well. Countless people `sacrificed their today for a better tomorrow for us’. Have we achieved that better today? Was there not a different vision than the one that we have worked for? Doubts arise not only because mass poverty and illiteracy (though less) persist and insanitary conditions and ill health continue on a mass scale to take a heavy toll but because we hardly have a vision left except to follow the West. In the process we have perhaps got the worst of both the worlds.
In material terms, a few, numbering less than 3% of the population, have done well while the rest are trapped in a low level equilibrium. We boast of more billionaires than Japan while in terms of per capita income we are in the bottom twenty out of 177 nations. Since their per capita income is 60 times ours, crudely speaking, we must be at least 60 times more unequal. Is it something to gloat about. Largest number of people below the poverty line, farmers suicides, huge urban slums, fields in and around cities functioning as vast toilets, the inability of the so called literates to understand modern technology, etc., suggest that the nation as a whole has yet to awake to a new morning. The 3% affluent adding up to 33 million people, a good size European nation, are nested in a vast ocean of deprivation.
In the 1958 movie, `Phir Subaha Hogi’, Mukesh singing with pathos, “Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi” (That morning will come some time), epitomized the dream of the common Indian of the Fifties and the Sixties. Many of us as children internalized the idea that we will build a better future for all our countrymen and perhaps we would build a new civilization that would surpass the West. Sixty years after independence perhaps the shreds of this dream are not even left in the dustbins of those in power and supposedly guiding the destiny of this nation. That dream has been blown away in the hurricane of achieving 9% growth.
The song is not just about eliminating poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy but above all about a dream of building a different society – a peaceful one where everyone (specially the marginalized) would live with dignity. Gandhi emphasising “last Person First” suggested that if everyone could hold their head high, no one could subjugate the nation. For him that is what the national struggle was all about – dignity for all. Mukesh captures the present situation in the line, “Miti ka bhi kuch mol magar insano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin” (Even earth has some value but human beings have none).
The song defines that happy morning as “Jab ambar jhum ke nachega, Jab dharti nagme gayegi”. When the sky would dance with joy and the Earth would sing songs. Today, at our low per capita consumption, the air, water and land are terribly polluted and weeping rather than singing and dancing. The most revered Ganga or Godavari are heavily polluted, their beds contaminated with huge amounts of toxic material that would affect the future generations. Even the sacred is no more sacred, so what is sacrosanct? Certainly not the dream of the National Movement.
The song goes “Jab dukh ke badal pighlenge” (when the clouds of sorrow will melt). For the vast numbers of the marginalized sections, sorrow is a daily and endless fare that is not melting away. Dozens of their children can disappear in Nithari and little is done. The only escape is what Bollywood dishes out - sex and violence. The government provides little relief since it fails to deliver. Faith in politicians is a casualty. Further, “Insano ki izzat jab jhute sikkon me na toli jayegi” (when people’s dignity would not be measured by false money). The dignity of the poor is even more firmly mortgaged to money when unemployment is so high and the youth has to take to crime to fulfill its expectations. “Mana ki abhi tere mere armano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin”, (Agreed that today our dreams have no value). But there was belief, one day this would change. The dreams of the deprived have no value to the rulers who in their self centerdness can only see in them the means to fulfill their own narrow dreams of great riches, like, in the misallocation of land meant for the poor displaced slum dwellers of dwellers.
Today labour is devalued while speculation and greed have been raised to a new high pedestal. A mere 1% of the population linked to the corporate sector earns more than what 60%, dependent on agriculture, do. Disparities have risen more sharply in the last 6 years than in the earlier 54 years. The young are encouraged to sell soap but not to contribute to nation building through teaching and research. Sacrifice appears to be stupidity, undermining the entire effort of the freedom fighters. Those of them who still survive ruefully ask, is this what they fought for? Armed forces are losing officers and are understaffed since the private sector is so much more lucrative and why sacrifice since that is no more a virtue. Grab an opportunity if it presents itself – its right and wrong is immaterial – since the only surviving principle is `what suits me is correct’.
The 3%, the ruling elite of the nation aspire to join the international elite, sending its children to study college abroad, going there for vacations or to hospitals for health problems. It is voting with its feet. A school in Chappra or a dispensary in Ghungrawali has little value to it but Delhi must have 24 hours water and electricity. That is progress. Most of the elite, businessmen, corrupt politicians and the corrupt executive have spirited vast sums of money abroad. This is not just for a rainy day but for a possible new life in case of difficulties at home. The emotional attachment with the nation is gone. For the elite, making society better is too much of a struggle.
Going abroad to work is considered highly desirable by society and the young encouraged to do so. More H1B visas are asked for by the government so that the best can go abroad rather than serving the nation. The short sightedness of the vision underlying such a move by the government escapes the ruling elite. Already, the country lacks dynamism and this situation is aggravated by the best leaving the shores. This is reflected in the country having to import most modern technologies since it lacks the ability to develop them indigenously. Even in the defence field where national effort has been concentrated, we depend largely on imports. LCA has been under development for more than 20 years and MBT for 25 years. Commercial nuclear reactors are being imported, etc.
Due to a lack of proper vision, laboratories, Universities and colleges function like offices, 9 to 5. They are largely treated as fiefdoms by the powerful to grant favours to their sycophants. Talent be damned and dynamism is a casualty. We are happy to get low value added jobs in Call Centres and BPOs so that the youth can work as cyber coolies rather than working in highly skilled jobs. We are happy at producing 10,000 world class professionals out of the 10 million who join the work force every year. Most of the best then leave the shores to go abroad. What induced many earlier to return to the country was a vision of a different India. Now since that vision is transformed into making India a poor cousin of the West, why return to face some of the most uncivilized conditions in the world? Anyhow, why sacrifice – that is not today’s value.
Corruption is rampant both in the public and the private sectors. Institutions, like the legislatures, judiciary and the bureaucracy, are breaking down. The elite is lawless breaking every single law – from traffic laws to building bye-laws to industrial and environmental laws. Many of the rich have earned more through illegal means than legal ones. The black economy continues to grow and is roughly 50% of GDP in spite of reduced tax rates and elimination of many controls.
The political leaders hardly represent the people - leading a life of luxury. Democracy is a great institution but in India it has been turned into a fine art for self aggrandizement. The bankruptcy of our leadership led to our jettisoning of the ideas of independent development in the Eighties and of the `last person first’ in the Nineties.
From tall leaders like Gandhi who could give up everything to the present day leadership that cannot give up anything. From the idea of voluntary poverty to the notion of greed as the driving force of our society. From society and nation to the self. A JRD Tata or a Bacchan rated higher than Nehru (or many others) indicates the demise of a national vision and the fall from grace of visionaries. The transition has been made from an inclusive national vision for all to an exclusivist vision for a few. The situation echos the line in Mukesh’s song, “Miti ka bhi kuch mol magar insano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin” (Even earth has some value but human beings have none). Farmers commit suicide in increasing numbers and the rsponse s ineffective packages. In the new vision, making huge airports takes precedence over giving access to clean drinking water and toilets to all.
The land of Gandhi has turned into the land of the bania (not that he was not a bania). There is a great deal of hype about the Sixtieth year of Independence which was not there for the Fortieth or the Thirtieth and this is a reflection of the times when media hype and commercial interests dominate. Anything, including one’s shauhrat (fame) can be encashed – nothing wrong in it. Nothing matters any more – a Tendulkar finds greater satisfaction in advertisiing and running restaurants than attempting to better Don Bradman’s record.
The credit for this U-turn goes to the very party which Gandhi built. Clever ones would shamelessly argue, even Gandhi would have done the same in the present context. Would they consider that a man given to simplicity, sacrifice and truth and not show, half truths and consumerism would have blanched at this suggestion?
From the notion that the ills of our society have a social cause to the idea that the individual is to blame for her predicament, it is a long journey. Everyone now has to go to the market to get what they need, government is no more responsible for elimination of poverty, etc.. The devil may take the hindmost.
The nation can boast of many things in post independence India. A democracy – even if it barely functions under the weight of criminals and corrupt leaders sitting in the legislatures. Better position for some women even if they are now more of a commodity in the market than ever before. Better position for some Dalits even if their leaders are corrupt and repeatedly coopted by the elite. There is more sugar, more clothing and more milk per capita today than ever before but there is more adulteration of food and more lifestyle and pollution related disease than ever before. There are more educational institutions today but their quality is pitiful and hey sufer from rampant corruption. Where are the teachers who could be the ideals for the children to emulate? They would much rather go to coaching classes than spend time with children.
Some people with idealism survive who continue to fight in spite of adversity – carrying the dream forward. Nations are built on dreams but we have narrowed it to money making. So how do we build a great nation as `Nehru’s tryst’ suggested or to which Mukesh referred to in the song, “Jis subaha ki khatir yug yug se ham sab mar mar ke jite aiyen hain”. (That morning for whose sake from eons we all have been living by dying a thousand deaths). Gandhi had a dream for the nation that the party he helped build has shattered.
He perhaps saw what was coming so he wanted the party to dissolve itself so that this farce would not have occurred. He wanted the Rashtrapati Bhavan to be converted into a hospital not because that would have been very functional but because that would have given birth to many more dreams and prevented many of the freedom fighters from turning into rulers in the imperial mould. The lament is not that we have not achieved anything but that we could have done much better if we had stayed with the dream of the national movement which has now evaporated from the national consciousness. So Sixty years down the road we are still waiting for that new dawn in the midst of 9% growth. Today Mukesh would have to sing, `Who Subaha Abhi to Nahin Ayegi’.
nuramarku@gmail.com.
The song by Mukesh from the 1958 movie, `Phir Subaha Hogi”: Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Hindi Song
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
In kali sadiyon ke sar se
Jab rat ka anchal dhalke ga
Jab dukh ke badal pighlenge
Jab subaha ka sagar chalkega
Jab ambar jhum ke nachega
Jab dharti nagme gayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Jis subaha ki khatir yug yug se
hum sab mar mar ke jite aiyen hain
Jis subaha ki amrit bundon ki khatir
hum zahar ke pyale pite hain
In bhuki pyasi ruhon par ek din to karam farmeyga
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
Mana ki abhi tere mere armano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin
Miti ka bhi kuch mol magar insano ki kimat kuch bhi nahin
Insano ki izzat jab jhute sikkon me na toli jayegi
Woh Subaha Kabhi to Ayegi
English Translation
That morning will come some time
When from the head of these black centuries
The scarf of night would slip away
When the clouds of sorrow will melt
When the ocean of morning would brim over
When the sky would dance with joy
When the Earth would sing songs
That morning will come some time
That morning will come some time
That morning for whose sake from eons
we all have been living by dying a thousand deaths
For the sake of the drops of elixir of that morning
we drink the cup of poison
One day fate will bless these thirsty and hungry souls
That morning will come some time
That morning will come some time
Agreed that at present the value of our dreams is nothing
Even earth has some value but human beings have none
When people’s dignity will not be weighed with false coins
That morning will come some time
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