Friday, November 23, 2012

Black Economy in India and Transnational Organized Crime: Undermining Democracy*

Black Economy in India and Transnational Organized Crime: Undermining Democracy*
Arun Kumar
CESP, SSS, JNU[1]. India

1.         Definitions     
Illegality typically leads to the generation of black market profits. The activities associated with it and the profits generated from it constitute the black economy. Hence, the size of a black economy represents the prevalence of illegality in a country. Illegality can be committed either through legal activities or illegal activities. Legal activities are those that are allowed by law (e.g., agriculture, finance, construction) and produce social “goods.” Revenues from these activities are counted as part of the national revenues. The implication is that they improve the welfare of the citizens and make society better.
Illegal activities are not permitted by law (e.g., smuggling, peddling of narcotic drugs, theft) and are said to produce social “bads,” since they degrade the welfare of society, if not also the individuals indulging in these activities. Profits from these activities are not counted in national revenue totals. Such activities are linked to criminal activities of various kinds (see Government of India 2011 for data on crime in India). However, not all crime is linked to generation of profits, for example murder or gender violence. Hence, the black economy will not capture such crimes. Furthermore, crime linked to economic activities that generate profits is often connected with organized crime, whether within countries or across borders – the latter is referred to as transnational organized crime.
The black economy can be understood as broadly reflecting illegality in an economy, even if it does not capture all criminal activities within a society (Kumar 1999). In India, the black economy pervades all sectors of the economy. Elite professions have also been found to be involved, for example businessmen, politicians, bureaucrats, police, legal representatives, medical personnel, chartered accountants, and education professionals, among others.
The size of the black economy has been rising since India’s independence in 1947. It has been estimated to have consecutively increased over the years: it was 4 to 5 percent of GDP in 1955/1956 (Government of India 1956); 7 percent in 1970 (Government of India 1971); 21 percent in 1980/1981 (NIPFP 1985); 40 percent in 1995/1996 (Kumar 1999); per projections by this author, it was 50 percent in 2005/2006. Thus, illegality and crime are constantly on the rise in the country, not only in absolute terms but in relative terms. It has grown from being petty and sporadic to becoming more organized (national and transnational).
Organized crime in India operates within a multitude of areas: illegal forestry and mining; narcotic drugs trafficking; gun-running; human trafficking; sex trade; illicit liquor making and distribution; encroachment of public land; production of spurious medicines and fake goods; adulteration of food items; malpractices in medical profession, including the sale of blood and organs and other malpractices, such as recycling of hospital waste; entertainment and film industry; hawala (an alternative remittance system that operates outside of traditional financing structures); flight of capital; illegal financing of trade; smuggling of goods, including gold and electronic items; and so on. Underlying these illegalities is the “Triad” of the corrupt businessmen, politicians, and the executive, which is made up of the bureaucracy, the police, and the judiciary.
2. Causes, history, and analysis
The black economy and illegality have existed in all societies at some point. In India, it became systematic during World War II, when shortages of essential items became critical. Rationing of food was introduced but there were black market activities to compensate. To escape detection, perpetrators bribed the bureaucracy and the police. Inflation led to increases in the prices of property, meaning that those without property found it difficult to get housing. The government introduced rent control laws, which became a source of corruption in the courts.
The British set up a civil service to administer (keep control of) India. The public servant became the public master with enormous power over the public, and this was used to extract bribes. However, the bulk of the population was poor, self-employed, and worked in agriculture. They had few public dealings, meaning that the level of corruption and the black economy was negligible. The civil service was accountable to the colonial masters. Because they were interested in efficient control of the country, they did not allow corruption to grow. They also paid the civil servants high salaries, as compared to the per capita incomes of locals, and gave them many privileges to lessen the temptation for corruption.
There was a landlord class ruling over the peasantry that extracted rent from the farmers on behalf of the colonial masters. They were a part of the tiny colonial ruling elite and had substantial powers, which were misused to extract money from the people they ruled. They were a law unto themselves and could extract money from the peasantry.
After independence, a political class came to power and replaced the colonial ruling elite. They started the task of development in a very poor country. They depended on the civil service for governing the country and did not transform it into a public service that was accountable to the people. The political class that emerged from the national freedom movement was democratic in its aspirations, but its members came from the country’s elite class and had feudal intentions. They thought of themselves as rulers and not as representatives of the people.
Consequently, independent India started with high aspirations but a weak democracy because the power was transferred from the colonial masters to a relatively unaccountable political class and a civil service that was accountable mostly to itself. As the democratic aspirations of the national movement weakened, the political class became more corrupt. The government of India (1956) talked about the need to keep the black economy in check so that more resources could be raised for development. It found businesses generating profits from black market activities in all sectors of the economy.
The Indian national movement understood that colonial rule was the source both of the poverty and the helplessness of the common man in dealing with their problems of unemployment, illiteracy, and so on. Therefore, it was decided that society as a whole had to overcome these basic problems of the people and the state was given a large role in economic matters. Furthermore, optimal utilization of resources required central planning, which required licensing of capacity in industries. This reinforced the role of the state in the economy.
Due to de-industrialization in India during colonial rule, Indian capitalists were too small to provide capital for the creation of the necessary infrastructure for transportation and power, for example. They lacked the technology and capital to invest in basic goods like metals and petroleum, or in capital goods manufacturing. The corollary was that a large public sector was needed to support both the growth of the private sector and the planning process. This required the mobilization of savings in a country that was poor. Consequently, consumption had to be restrained through taxation and limiting the production and importing of luxury goods. Imports were limited so as to conserve the foreign exchange required to import capital goods for development. A strategy of import substitution was adopted to boost industry and high customs duties were introduced for this purpose.
In 1944, the Indian capitalist class drew up a plan of industrialization in post-independence India that contained the abovementioned elements of policy (Thakurdas 1944). These plans were also incorporated in the industrial policy statements of 1948 and 1956. However, what the capitalists agreed to collectively, they undid through their private actions by fouling up policies through illegality. They cornered licenses by bribing authorities and creating monopolies for economic gain. In the various development activities and projects, corruption was introduced to make extra profits. This was not feasible without the connivance of the politicians and the bureaucracy, who were drawn into corruption. Luxury goods – or those goods that faced high customs duties – were smuggled in.
As India developed, the size of the middle class increased and shortages of basic goods (e.g., food, scooters, cement) or basic services (e.g., telephone and railway reservations) appeared. Queues formed for each of them, and soon thereafter black markets developed. Businesses took advantage of these black markets and corruption spread to the lower levels of society.
Big business in India realized that manipulating policies required close proximity to political power. It started exercising direct control over the political process by financing political parties and individual candidates for legislatures. It also increasingly interfered in appointments at the senior levels of the bureaucracy in key ministries. The Triad proved useful for this purpose and it was mutually convenient for the three arms of the Triad. The businessmen could manipulate policies, whereas the other two could get the help of businessmen to invest their ill-gotten gains.
Another aspect of colonial rule helped to spread corruption – the policy of divide and rule. The end of colonial rule left behind antagonisms and instability in India’s immediate neighborhood, which helped illegality to spread. There have been several wars and  continuing communal tensions with Pakistan; with China, there have been border disputes and strategic conflicts. These realities have fostered terrorist/separatist movements in India’s border states – Kashmir, Punjab, and in the northeast. In turn, they became areas for smuggling, gun-running, counterfeit-currency trading, human trafficking, sex trade, and so on.
India has had historically close relations with Nepal and, therefore, open borders. Large-scale poverty in Nepal and Bangladesh has spurred illegal activities in the border areas. The corrupt monarchy in Nepal and the unstable political climate in Bangladesh led to the spread of large-scale corruption. Ethnic problems emerged in Sri Lanka between the dominant Sinhala community and the Tamils concentrated in the north. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam emerged to fight a civil war over three decades. To finance its activities, it indulged in a wide array of illegalities. Their links with Tamils in India and across the globe helped in the proliferation of illegalities around the world.
Growing illegality in India was also linked to the oil crisis and the sharp increase in the petro goods prices in the 1970s. The sudden wealth in the oil-exporting countries led to large-scale economic activities there, but India lacked the necessary skilled labor (carpenters, plumbers, drivers, teachers, engineers, doctors), which they imported from South Asia on a large scale. These migrants started sending money back home to their families. This encouraged the spread of hawala internationally because the hawala operators provided cheap services and a premium on the money sent through them. Simultaneously, this service also allowed Indian businesses to send their capital abroad.
In 1991, India changed its policies and made massive concessions to the private sector – whatever it had been demanding in the 1980s was granted. Taxes were reduced, licensing was eliminated, and imports were liberalized, and so on. The role of the public sector and planning was minimized. With the arrival of the WTO in 1995, there was a further opening up of the economy to foreign trade and capital. The amount of illegality grew, and the nature of the black economy changed but it grew as well. As the market economy grew, queues ended but money determined who would get what. Anything could be imported, and the private sector allowed for the production of luxury goods. Thus, shortages of telephones, automobiles, televisions, and so on, disappeared, as did the black markets associated with them.
But, as restraints on business declined with the weakening of the state, business indulged in corruption in an even bigger way. The Triad, already in place, started functioning differently and shared the gains from corruption differently. Many politicians became businessmen – openly or in names of their family members. Businessmen also entered politics in larger numbers. Privatization and the establishment of the infrastructure of the private sector (in public-private partnership mode) offered new opportunities for making illegal gains by cornering resources like land, forests, and mines. Greater participation by the private sector since 1991 in the education and health sectors has created enormous opportunities to indulge in illegalities. The number of scams and the amount of money involved per scam has grown exponentially since the 1990s (Kumar 2012).
In brief, systematic illegality and corruption in the country has its roots in big business and the Triad it created. This has led to the emergence of organized crime in the country. The problems fostered at the borders with neighbors and the hawala links for flight of capital have enabled the linkage between local illegality and transnational crime. Finally, the indiscriminate opening up of the economy in 1991 has led to a further spread of illegality and crime.

3. Forms, cases, and interfaces of Indian illegality
For the black economy to be 50 percent of GDP, as it is currently, it has to be both systematic and systemic. Laws have to be systematically violated so that those in charge of maintaining the law of the land can partake in violations of the law. For certain favors, they will look the other way while businesses commit illegal activities. Take, for instance, the way the police and the judiciary in India function.
Illegalities are to be checked by the police, and the persons committing the illegal action should be brought to justice through the courts. In India, presently there are 40 million cases in the courts and they continue for years or decades (sometimes more than 30 years). The time in prison for many awaiting trial is longer than any sentence they might have to serve if they are convicted for the crimes they were supposed to have committed. Thus, in many jails, there are more people awaiting trial than there are people who have been convicted.
The delays are due to the widespread corruption in the courts and the non-accountability of the judges. Judges postpone hearing cases for frivolous reasons. The legal profession is also interested in such delays, since they collect fees on the basis of the number of appearances in court. Often in routine cases – in which a decision should come in less than a year – cases may drag on for more than five years. This leads to a fivefold increase in the number of cases pending. The pressure on the judges also increases. They may have to go through 50 cases in a six-hour working day, meaning that they have an average of seven minutes per case. Each case may come up for a hearing after a few months, meaning the judge must refresh her memory, thereby taking up precious time and often resulting in mistakes.
To smooth the work in the courts, a bribe might be paid. For instance, a court bailiff may charge a party between INR 1,000 (US$20) to INR 25,000 ($500) for having a property vacated by the losing party. The local police, who are required to accompany the court bailiff, charges separately. For the inspection of files, filing papers, and so on, an off-the-books payment to the clerks may be required. Judges have also been caught letting one of the parties to a case see whether the judgment suits their needs. One cannot publicly talk about these matters due to the fear of being hauled up for “contempt of court.”
The poor are mostly unable to approach the courts for justice, since filing cases is expensive and the laws are so opaque that often the poor who are not very literate do not understand their complexity. Even if they do go to court against a stronger party, the latter is able to bribe their way through the court and delay or subvert justice. Often there is a nexus between the judges and the lawyers. The well-off party hires a lawyer who is able to manipulate the legal system and who can fix a case to appear before a judge of choice. To minimize this kind of manipulation, the judge in a case is often changed. This has created its own problems, sometimes resulting in situations where up to 8 judges hear a case over a two-and-a-half-year period. This means each of the judges is unfamiliar with the case and often postpones the case on frivolous grounds.
Powerful persons in politics, business, organized crime, etc., can get cases against them thrown out by the prosecution. This is done at the initial stage of investigation, whereby crucial evidence is misplaced or not presented carefully so that the case fails in the court. Thus, these people do not even need to use corruption in the courts to obtain favorable decisions. Judges have often commented on the poor preparation of cases by the police. The powerful are known to influence witnesses to change their testimony. Threats – coupled with inordinate delays (the witnesses also forget what they have seen or heard) – lead to the spoiling of cases against the powerful people.
The result is that the members of the Triad have contempt for the law and violate it with impunity. In India, laws on paper differ substantially from how they are implemented due to the judicial delays and manipulations by those in power. For instance, there are laws against child labor, but these are circumvented in large parts of the country, including in the cities. In such violations, the police play an important part.
Illegality flourishes because the police participate in the process. They collect a weekly or monthly sum (hafta) to allow the illegal activities to continue. This money is collected from beggars in the streets, street vendors, encroachers on public land, businessmen, sex workers, car thieves, pick pockets, those doing illegal construction, and any other kind of illegal activity. The post of the head of a police station (called thana) is auctioned. This person sets targets for the collection of money for each of the “beat” constables. The more commercial activity or the higher the level of illegality in the jurisdiction of a police station, the more money collected. The money is then shared right up to the top (political bosses) (Kumar 1999). At every level, half the money collected is kept and the rest is passed on. Since the pyramid narrows steeply, a lot of money goes up to the few at the top.
The hafta from illegal activities is also collected by the local municipal officers and the local politicians. Thus, a substantial part of the earnings of a poor person is siphoned away by these officials and the politicians. The hafta results in linkages between the criminals and the officials. For instance, the pickpocket gets protection from the police and no new pickpocket can encroach on their territory. Organized crime is a party to this payment of hafta and it flourishes because of the official protection it receives.
In India, since land in urban areas is expensive, relative to per capita incomes, a large number of people migrating annually to the cities cannot afford any kind of formal housing. So the migrants either become homeless and sleep under overpasses, bridges, etc.; or they encroach on public land with the consent of the police and local politicians; or they crowd into existing slums, most of which have various degrees of illegality associated with them. Thus, with illegal acquisition of their shelter, they tend to fall into the grip of criminals. Since they need income, the family members at times get into illegal work, like bootlegging, sex trade, and so on. Organized crime gangs use their unstable living conditions and poverty to recruit workers for illegal work.
In private professional educational institutions, students pay for admissions (called capitation fees). In case of medical education, the capitation fee can be up to $100,000. The situation is similar in the case of engineering, management, and other professional courses. These institutions are often run by politicians and businessmen. On the pretext of providing social service, these institutions are allotted land at low prices and granted concessions. The involvement of politicians guarantees quick government approval.
Software- and information-related services have experienced a boom in India since the mid 1990s. These lend themselves to under- and over-invoicing and, therefore, to the flight of capital from the country. During the dot-com boom, many fake companies floated initial public offerings on the stock market and they disappeared with the public’s money. The recent scandal involving Satyam Computer Services* is instructive in learning about the various kinds of illegalities that such software companies can indulge in: under-invoicing; registering in tax havens; creating fictitious employment records; diverting funds to other companies owned by the same owner; funding politicians; buying real estate; and so on.
*Satyam was one of the high-flying software companies of India and an exemplary one, according to the government and the business community. It was controlled by the highly respected Raju family of Andhra Pradesh. In January 2008, Mr. Raju of Satyam, the chairperson, stunned everyone when he admitted to committing massive fraud against the public over the years. Apparently, the company was defrauded of Rs 7,000 crore ($1.5 billion) but the final tally could be larger. The loss to the shareholders and employees was a multiple of this sum.
Mr. Raju claimed that Satyam was operating with margins of 3 to 4 percent, when for comparable software companies, they were in the range of 25 percent. Was Mr. Raju lying under the auspices of telling the truth? The puzzle is that Satyam should have had higher profit margins, but its owner, Mr. Raju, claimed that it had lower margins, thereby willingly implicating himself in fraud. Was he trying to cover up a bigger fraud?
In India, there have been concessions in taxation on profits from exports. So, it may pay to divert profits from a company that is not entitled to tax concessions to another group company that is entitled to tax concessions, and thereby save on tax payments. Mr. Raju was siphoning funds from Satyam to sister companies dealing in real estate.
To take advantage of the provisions for exports, they have to be over-invoiced. Hence, more foreign exchange has to be brought into the country than has been earned. This way, undeclared wealth held outside the country or profits of other companies transferred out of the country through hawala are brought back – that is, reverse hawala.
Satyam tried to buy its sister companies at high and inflated prices. So, its fictitious bank accounts, worth Rs 7,000 crores, would have been drawn down and money transferred to the owners of the sister companies, that is, to themselves, and then there would have been no one to ask where the money went. So, using book transfers, the earlier transferring out of funds would have been covered up and the false entries of the bank balances and fixed deposits reversed/ set right.
Satyam was forced to reverse its decision to buy the sister companies by the investment bankers who approached SEBI (stock exchange regulator) with the story of the non-existent balance in the banks. There was little time to bring back other undeclared funds, and perhaps due to the global crisis of 2008, they became stuck. Since the funds did not exist in the Satyam bank accounts, Mr. Raju had to cover up by saying that the actual profitability of Satyam was lower and that he had been inflating profits for years.
The Satyam affair points to the scheming practices adopted by crooked Indian businesses – siphoning profits, fudging muster rolls, the cozy relations with politicians and bureaucrats, and finally, manipulating bankers, “independent” auditors, and “independent” directors. Mr. Raju’s admission has brought into question the notion of a “respectable” or “honest” businessman.




As already mentioned above, hawala is active in India. It is not regulated by the Central Bank. It is used to transfer funds within the country and outside of it. Since it deals purely in cash, large sums of money are moved from the premises where hawala operates. The police and the intelligence agencies know of these places, but they do not act because of the high-level political protection available to the hawala operators. The top politicians in power also know of them, since they use this channel, but they do not act against these hawala operators either out of self-interest. Thus, what is known privately is not known officially. The hawala channels are used by organized crime units to transfer money around the country and outside of it. Terrorists, drug dealers, and others use these channels because of the anonymity they provide.
In summary, due to existence of the Triad, all kinds of illegal activities and crime flourish in India. The common man is helpless in the face of these powerful people.


4. Global economic flows and routes
Local criminal activities described above have been linked to transnational crimes through terrorism; the printing and circulation of counterfeit currencies; the operation of hawala; the production and distribution of narcotic drugs; arms-trafficking; and the smuggling of electronic items, gold, and gems. As discussed in section II, in all these cases, the neighboring countries – and at times their secret services – are involved. The profits from these activities help finance terrorism and destabilize the nation.
Myanmar was a closed nation till recently and there has been much ethnic conflict. Thus, it was easy to move narcotic drugs through these territories into India’s northeast, where separatist movements were taking place. Similarly, Bangladesh has been another porous border through which human trafficking have been taking place and where terrorist movements have found sanctuary. They also became conduits for organized crime.
Conflict in Afghanistan since the beginning of the 1970s has led to power rivalries. The Western nations armed the Taliban – fundamentalist Muslims – to fight the Soviet forces that entered Afghanistan to help the left-leaning regime that came to power by dethroning the King there. Soon, Afghanistan became the Vietnam of the Soviets and they had to eventually withdraw, leaving the Taliban in charge. But by then, Afghanistan was awash with weapons supplied by the West. Afghanistan was also known for its production of narcotic drugs. When the central power weakened and regional warlords emerged, the Taliban smuggled weapons and narcotic drugs to enrich themselves.
A nexus emerged between the Taliban and the Muslim fundamentalists in Pakistan. This impacted the separatist movement in Kashmir and also became a major source of financing Muslim fundamentalism in India. In the process, India became a route for transnational crime. This was facilitated by a corrupt bureaucracy and the police.
An amnesty was given to smugglers in 1983 so that they could come into the mainstream. But this led to the entry of criminals into politics, or at least their more active participation in politics. Before they had financed politicians but remained largely in the background. The Triad now had criminals in it – either the businessman or the politician in the Triad had criminal backgrounds. As criminals entered the legislatures, the rule of law weakened. They manipulated the police, the bureaucracy, and the judiciary to get favorable decisions and also interfered more blatantly in decision-making.
Smugglers developed links with organized crime abroad to carry on their activities systematically. These links also required them to be in touch with hawala operators, who did not distinguish between clean (but illegal) money and dirty money. So they transferred the money of terrorists just as often as that of businessmen under-invoicing exports. In fact, the gold smugglers often needed foreign currency to buy gold for smuggling into India, and they got it from narcotic drug rings that needed to send funds to finance their activities in India. Thus, many inter-linkages developed.
Smuggling was driven by the chance to make easy money, since custom duties were high for the import of luxury goods, liquor, tobacco products, gold, and gems. It required corrupting the customs officials and the politicians. Airports and ports turned into dens of corruption with all kinds of illegal activities taking place. Very complex importing rules were deliberately set up so that the misclassification of goods and services was possible. The threat of harassment is an important driver for the willingness to bribe the official machinery.
In India, laws on paper differ substantially from the way law is practiced. Being in power implies the ability to offer favors for utilitarian considerations. For instance, traffic rules are violated with impunity, especially by those in power. When the average citizen gets caught, they offer a small bribe to the police to be let off. Hence, traffic on the roads is chaotic. A driving license can be obtained without taking a test. This is symptomatic of all rules and laws in the country. The honest get harassed while the dishonest make money or jump the queues.
It is the Triad that has facilitated systematic illegality in the country and – as it has strengthened over time – it has spread. The individual citizen is not able to resist and is more willing to make bribes and commit illegal acts. The Triad takes advantage of this by pushing for more illegality. In the process, people have moved from collective action to individual action and weakened democracy in the country. With the Triad functioning unhindered, international organized crime gangs have also found it easy to penetrate into India and set up operations.

5. Consequences for victims, outlook and impacts on the rule of law
The consequences of the growing black economy have been that development has been set back due to widespread policy failure. Kumar (2005) shows that the Indian economy has been losing 5 percent rate of growth since the mid 1970s due to the growing black economy. Today, the Indian economy could already have become the second largest economy in the world. Income distribution is highly skewed against the poor, and this is having an adverse social impact. India has the largest number of poor people in the world as well as malnourished children and women, illiterate people, and sick people.
The state is considered to be weak and unable to carry out its mandate. The institutions of democracy (e.g., legislature, judiciary) have been weakened due to all of this and there is a feeling that the nation lacks social justice. Thus, today, every section of society is trying to gain something at the expense of others. This has resulted in massive conflicts in society and often chaotic conditions. The political structures are badly fragmented, whereby there are a few hundred political parties, each jostling for its space and share of power, which is exercised not for the national good but for the section it represents. Thus, faith in the nation has weakened.
The poor face a criminal environment and live insecure lives. Their children often engage in various kinds of illegal activities and get into drugs, smoking, and other addictive behaviors. Women engage in other kinds of illegal activities and have to bear a double burden of taking care of the home as well as working outside.
Black economies lead to both higher costs of production with lower quality and to environmental damage. Thus, the rate of inflation is higher than it need be and health costs rise due to increased levels of diseases and low capacities to fight them. Corruption in the medical profession adds to health costs, and as a result, the poor often fall below the poverty line when treating a major illness in the family.
Tackling the black economy is the key to making a dent in crime, whether national or transnational. Since India’s independence, dozens of committees and commissions have looked at the problem of the black economy (and its various aspects) in the country. They have made thousands of suggestions and hundreds have been implemented: reducing tax rates; reducing controls and regulations; demonetization of high denomination currency; voluntary disclosure schemes; bearer bond schemes; acquisition of undervalued property; and so on. There are already enough laws to check corruption; the problem is that they are not implemented. Intelligence about organized crime exists, but no action is taken since top businessmen and politicians are involved. So the problem is not a technical one, and the size of the black economy has increased in spite of the steps taken to check its growth. The issue is one of political will, which is non-existent.
It is crucial to have political movements that would strengthen democracy and bring about accountability among the members of the Triad. Movements on the right to information, judicial accountability, the right to education, the right to food, and the right to housing are all needed to strengthen democracy and bring about accountability in the political process. Movements centered around these issues have been created in the last two decades, and they may eventually change things for the better.

References
Government of India. 2011. Crime in India 2010. Ministry of Home Affairs, National Crime Records Bureau.
Government of India. 1971. Direct taxes enquiry report. Chairperson: Wanchoo.
Government of India. 1956. Direct tax reform: Report of a survey. Chairperson: Kaldor.
Kumar, A. 1999. The black economy in India. New Delhi: Penguin.
———. 2005. India’s Black Economy: The Macroeconomic Implications. South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies. Vol. 28, No.2. August 2005. Pp 249-263.
———. 2012. Indian economy since independence: Tracing the dynamics of colonial disruption in society. Forthcoming.
NIPFP (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy). 1985. Aspects of black economy in India. New Delhi: NIPFP.
Thakurdas, P. 1944. A plan of economic development for India. Bombay: The Commercial Printing Press.



* This paper is based on the author’s two books, The Black Economy in India (1999/2002) and Indian Economy since Independence: Tracing the Dynamics of Colonial Disruption in Society (2010)’.
[1] CESP – Centre for economic Studies and Planning, SSS – Studies of Social Systems, JNU – Jawaharlal Nehru University

Friday, November 2, 2012

Mirroring India’s Future: The Decline of Retailers and Farmers in Mexico

Mirroring India’s Future: The Decline of Retailers and Farmers in Mexico
Arun Kumar
Chairperson and Sukhamoy Chakravarty Chair Professor, CESP, SSS, JNU.

A computer systems analyst was the driver of the taxi which took me from the airport to the hotel in Mexico city. A cheerful English speaking man who talked about himself and his family’s woes in the hour it took to cover the 30 kms. He wanted to know about the global economic crisis so that he could figure out why things were bad in Mexico for people like him. He complained about unemployment and his inability to get the right job without connections - a fate his children also face. He put the blame on the US and its policies and corruption in society. These themes were repeated many a times during my week of stay in Mexico.
The taxi passed through many commercial and residential areas but no small shops were visible. There were big malls, automobile dealers, petrol stations, restaurants, pharmacy stores and car repair shops. I wondered if they were inside the colonies. A friend who had been posted in the Indian Embassy in the mid-1980s had mentioned that there were fruit stores everywhere and one could make a meal of fruits in the evening but such shops were no where in evidence. I speculated if this was the future of the Indian metropolises.
The absence of small stores was perplexing but more intriguing was the serious unemployment given that Mexico has been a part of NAFTA since 1994 and which brought in much foreign investment, many factories have relocated from the US to Northern Mexico to supply the US and Canadian markets and so on. The city was bustling with cars and it is prosperous compared to India with a per capita income ten times ours. There are layers of flyovers one on top of the other but there were traffic jams. During day time, it takes 2 – 3 hours to cover a distance that takes 25 minutes early in the morning. Public transport system consists of rail, buses and trams but people are stuck in traffic for a good part of their day. The city has to spread horizontally since it is built on land fill and there is lots of water below the surface. Thus, multi-storeyed buildings require expensive deep foundations. So, most buildings are one or two stories high and that has forced the city of 25 million to spread out.
Old timers remember that Mexico city had small stores till the mid 1980s. Only the organized sector stores survive now, like, the Sanborn chain belonging to Mr. Slim, the richest man in the world. Sanborn has had a unique model of a restaurant on the first floor and a gift shop, pharmacy and other such conveniences on the ground floor. The young I talked to did not remember any time when there were corner stores in the residential colonies. From the Hotel window, perched 8 floors up, I could see malls but no small stores. Sears, Walmart, McDonalds and so on were all there like, anywhere in the USA. In residential colonies, I did see a few small stores but most of them were American `Seven Eleven’ stores. But, there are pavement stalls and markets where the poor purchase their necessities. It was ironic to see the workers in ties from the malls cross the street to eat at the pavement stalls – perhaps they could not afford to eat in the mall.
On a visit to the charming centre of town it was refreshing to see streets lined with small stores. My escort told me that many people came here to shop because it was cheaper here then in the malls. I found a sweet shop named Cellaya established in 1874, much like our Halwai shops. It had the equivalent of kaju, pista and badam barfis, but very expensive.
I went outside Mexico city to Teotihuacan to see the Pyramids. The huge pyramid of the Sun god is apparently a few times larger than the biggest Egyptian pyramids. It was a part of an ancient city 2,000 years back which was over 3 miles long and had more than 1.5 lakh people. All this was awe inspiring but it was tiring because it involved hours of walking and climbing up and down. At the end of it all we went to the neighbouring town to eat. At its entrance over the road there was a beautiful arch which announced `Teotihuacan Pueblo con Encanto’. There the streets were lined with small stores.
The next day I visited the village Tlalnepantla in Morelos. I counted dozens of small shops for a population of a few thousand. This is a revolutionary village. Alvaro, our host, was an economics graduate who settled down here 40 years back. He does Nopal (cactus) cultivation along with the rest of the villagers. His small garden at the house had trees bearing guava, avacados, lime, lukat and so on. He has successfully experimented with creating a village republic. It was amazing to see the hilly village surrounded by 4,000 hectares of Nopal cultivation. Even more breathtaking was the clear view of the distant volcano from which a plume of smoke emanated.
The village rejected the corrupt political parties. They selected their own leader and did not recognize the president of the municipality, a party man. The government sent in troops declaring Alvaro and others as terrorists and they had to go underground. There were protests all over Mexico and especially in the Universities. The government was forced to drop the charges and come to an agreement. Land here belongs to the community and cannot be sold to outsiders. Hearing that an Indian professor was visiting the village, its leaders came with lunch and cactus products - cooked as vegetable, turned into pickle and marmalade– very delicious. Alvero asked about Gandhi, his philosophy of non-violence and how it could be applied in modern society. Gandhi seems to have a special place in Mexico. A chain of book stores is called `Gandhi’. There are parks and roads named after Gandhi.
The farmers are upset with the USA and NAFTA. They complained that the free market had enabled subsidized food to come from the US and destroyed their agriculture which now contributes only 4% of GDP. Thus, the two big employers, agriculture and retail trade have suffered in the last two decades and that is why unemployment is high (5.2%) but underemployment maybe 25%. I met a professor who said his son got a job only because of his connections and another said his son doing a Ph.D. is worried about the future. Why is this happening with so much foreign investment? This unemployment has driven down wages so that a starting Asst Prof in the University complained that he barely makes ends meet with his salary determined by the number of lectures he gives in the month. He thought that the taxi driver was better off than himself.
Worse, in Northern Mexico where investments from the US have poured in, Mafia has taken over and there is lawlessness. There the state seems to be withering away. Unemployed youth joins the Mafia. There is drug trafficking and illegal migration of youth into the US. It is this migration that has kept unemployment from getting worse. The migrants send money back home. So, remittances along with income from petroleum exports and tourism keep the Mexican economy afloat and prevent the crisis from deepening.
The proximity to the US, free trade with it and the investments from there have instead of solving Mexico’s problems led to a deepening crisis of unemployment, decline of traditional agriculture and to the demise of small retailers in metro cities. I wondered whether what I was seeing in Mexico was India fast forwarded twenty years, when the Metros will see lots of cars and traffic jams, unemployment, malls but few small retail stores and agriculture in crisis. Small stores are likely to survive in small towns and villages.
Our crisis is likely to be worse than Mexico’s since we do not border the largest economy in the world where our youth could illegally migrate nor are we likely to get investment in per capita terms matching what Mexico has got nor do we have petroleum or tourism income to prop us up. So, does Mexico mirror a part of our future if we continue with our current policies? What the mirror does not reflect maybe even bleaker because we are not Mexico.


Sunday, September 23, 2012

The Growing Divide between Economics and Politics in India

The Growing Divide between Economics and Politics in India
Arun Kumar
Chairperson and Sukhamoy Chakravarty Chair Professor, CESP,SSS, JNU.
Mainstream.

Government has gone for a slew of `reforms’ and drawn strong protest from people and the political parties both in UPA and outside it. The package consists of raising of price of diesel, restricting LPG cylinder supply at subsidized prices to 6 per annum per family and allowing FDI in aviation sector and in multi-brand retail trading (MBRT). The first step is inflationary since it will immediately impact all prices through the cascading effect. In the current scenario of high inflation it can only further damage the ruling political party. According to the government, liberalization of foreign investment will boost investments and raise the rate of growth of the economy. Quarter after quarter the rate of industrial growth has not only been falling but even been negative in some of the quarters.
Foreign investment, hardly a few per cent of the total investment in the economy, cannot change this trend. Even if it rises, that will take time to materialize and, therefore, cannot have any immediate impact on the economic growth rate. Further, it is hardly a panacea for the ills of the industrial sector which is suffering from uncertainty due to corruption and declining exports. The stock markets have reacted positively but that cannot spur growth. Thus, the government is unlikely to derive any short term benefit from this policy. There will be the cosmetic effect that the charge of policy paralysis may no more stick to UPAII and foreign press can no more criticize the PM of inaction.
There is no disagreement on the inflationary impact of the steps taken to reduce under recoveries in petro goods. This is justified on grounds of the need to control the fiscal deficit and the health of the petroleum sector. However, there is a sharp divide on the issue of allowing FDI in multi brand retail trade. The government had proposed it in November 2011 but withheld implementation due to the widespread opposition to it. It had said that it would consult everyone before implementing this policy. The current reaction suggests that there was inadequate consultation and that the step is being taken for some other reason.
The government claims that FDI in retail will boost the economy, provide large scale employment to youth, lead to lowering of consumer prices, better prices to the farmers, reduction in wastage in farm produce, improvements in technology and creation of infrastructure. It has been presented as a win-win situation for the nation. It is only supposed to be anti-middlemen in the supply chain who squeeze both the farmers and the consumers. Traders are labelled as the vested interests who oppose this step. It is argued that the MNCs would not displace the neighbourhood stores which will continue to flourish. Finally, it is said that the Indian corporates are already operating in this sector and they have not wiped out the local stores.
Walmart, the largest multi-brand retailer in the world has been itching to enter the Indian markets and has had a tie up with the Mittals. Its global sales were over $400 billion in 2009 and it employed 2.1 million workers. In India, if the turnover of the retail trade is taken to be the personal consumption, it would be $650 billion in 2009 and this sector offered employment to at least 30 million. If companies like Walmart were to enter India and displace the existing retail stores, they would only employ 3 million workers for India’s current level of sales. This would not happen suddenly but the trend would be clear.
The small stores would not disappear immediately. To begin with their growth in sales volume would slow down as the sales of the big retailers rises. That is already the effect of  the emergence of the malls and the coming of the Indian big retailers like, Reliance and Big Bazaar. The crowds in these stores are at the expense of what could have been the clientele in the small stores. Does one see the poor in these stores? No, a huge segregation is taking place.
The government is touting an increase in investments in the retail sector to spur growth. But, as small stores begin to suffer, their rather substantial investments would slow down. One need go to any market in India, even in small towns and see how the neighbourhood stores have grown. The sleepy Khan Market has turned into a fancy shopping centre (mall without a common roof) in the heart of Delhi. Has all this happened without investment?
The government claims that the companies with FDI will have to source 30% from the MSME sector which will help the growth of this sector. But does the Indian retail sector which is likely to be displaced not source more than 30% of its supplies from the MSMEs? Further, given the global linkages of the MNCs, they are likely to buy more from outside the country than the Indian small retailers do and this will adversely affect demand.
Thus, whether it is employment generation or the amount of investment or the impact on MSME sector, one has to see the net effect of the entry of MNCs in multi-brand retail trade. In the case of employment and MSMEs, there would be an adverse effect and in the case of investment the net effect even if positive would be too small to boost growth.
The expected positive impact of elimination of middlemen for farmers will be illusory given that India has a large number of very small farmers (unlike in the USA) and big business would not be able to deal with them. Further, given the deep pockets of the MNCs, speculation in food prices in India would only increase. The states are being given the freedom whether to implement the policy or not. But once the MNCs are ensconced in Delhi would state capitals be able to resist? It has to be a national policy either way.
The proponents argue that there would be backward linkages with the setting up of infrastructure that is presently lacking and that new technology would be introduced in India. Did Amul not set up infrastructure for milk marketing? Have the Indian organized sector in retail not been creating infrastructure? What is the high technology that Indian retailers cannot set up or evolve in India? If Indian big business has not found it profitable to set up more infrastructure and supply chains then would MNCs find it profitable to do so?
Consider the entry of Pepsi Cola in India in 1988. It promised revolution in tomato and potato farming in India to produce potato chips and tomato ketchup. By 1992 it had invested Rs. 80 crores and was buying from 80 farmers only. When Coca Cola was allowed to enter India without any conditionalities then Pepsi also demanded that it be exempted from its promises. The lesson is that promises made to gain entry are hardly implemented.
Today, the USA and Europe face massive unemployment. How far have the MNCs in retail which dominate these markets helped in reducing it? Walmart is growing but wherever it has gone, employment has declined. In India, where under employment in the unorganized sectors is massive, entry of organized sector firms can only aggravate the situation. They will not employ the poor and ill educated labour working in the small neighbourhood retail stores. Thus, they may create some employment for the middle class, public school educated youth but what of others?
Given all these imponderables for the Indian economy why is the government pushing ahead with this policy, in spite of the disquiet in the public? Indian big business in retail has been tying up with MNCs through various means like, Private Equity (PE), FII and PN route. The black funds of the Indian big business and politicians (some of whom are big businessmen) has been `round tripped’ into India. Thus, the Indian political class and big business are interested in the entry of FDI so that they can bring their funds back. To them the threat of MNCs is secondary.
Genuine Indian big business will not be able to survive the competition because FDI will come via tax havens like, Mauritius and be exempt from taxes. The former would have to sell out to the latter whether of Indian or foreign hue. Is another potential scam brewing? In brief, the ruling class is acting on its own behalf while over looking the larger interest of the Indian people – this is the growing divide between politics and economics in India.


Saturday, July 7, 2012

Legality and Illegality in India: Black Economy, Illegal Activities and Money Laundering

Legality and Illegality in IndiaBlack Economy, Illegal Activities and Money Laundering
Arun Kumar
CESP, SSS, JNU.
Published in German as: "Tatort Arbeitsplatz". Grenzenlos Illegal – Transnationale organisierte Kriminalität. Böll.Thema 

The black economy in India is estimated to be about 50% of GDP, in other words, it adds to the GDP about $600 billion annually. Linked to this is the annual flight of capital from the country with about 15% of the annual generation of black incomes going out of the economy, that is, approximately $90 billion. According to a recent report of Global Financial Integrity based in Washington, India has lost about $462 billion of capital since independence (1947) with most of the sum going out in the period after 1991 when the New Econo0mic Policies were launched. According to the report and others this is an under estimate of the Indian capital illegally taken out of the country. In brief, a poor country has been exporting capital on a large scale leading to an accentuation of the shortage of foreign exchange and of capital in the country, thereby setting back development in the nation.
The black economy is generated in both illegal (mafia, drug trafficking, crime and so on) and legal activities. All incomes generated in illegal activities are by definition black whether they are high profits that should pay taxes or wages that are below the taxable limit. In the case of legal activities, incomes that ought to have been declared and tax paid on them but are not declared are black incomes. However, in the legal activities in India many incomes are below the taxable level, like, of wage earners and those in the informal sectors and therefore no tax is required to be paid on them. In such cases, whether declared on not these incomes cannot be treated as black incomes. Thus, as shown in Kumar (1999), black incomes in India are factor incomes that should have been declared to direct tax authorities but are not.
In India, the black economy affects every economic activity (industry, finance, agriculture and so on) in the country and all the elite sections of population (politicians, businessmen, executive, teachers, doctors and so on) are involved in it. For the generation of black incomes, some illegality has to be committed, that is, rules have to be bent. For instance, businessmen do not show the full income from their sales in their balance sheets and pay less of the various taxes, like, VAT, income tax and corporation tax, applicable to their production. Doctors do not reveal their full income from their practice and take illegal cuts from the testing laboratories where they send patients for tests or may sell organs illegally and so on. Teachers may increase the marks of students or leak out question papers to help students for a consideration. Policemen rather than check illegality collect a weekly payment (called `hafta’) from those committing illegality so that crime proliferates. Politicians bend policies for the favoured ones so as to give an advantage to them over their rivals and charge a consideration (a bribe or a cut) for that.
In brief, during the normal task of carrying out their daily economic activity, elite sections indulge in illegality. In the scams exposed recently top judges, top military men, top politicians, top businessmen and so on have been caught misusing their powers to earn illegitimate incomes which amount to black incomes.
The dividing line between illegality and legality is indeed thin because illegality is committed in the normal legal activities of people. Those earning black incomes try to make out that they are carrying out their economic activity in the routine way by masking their illegality. So a doctor who is supposed to recommend diagnostic tests may prescribe unnecessary tests so as to get a larger kickback from the testing laboratories. However, the patient can not make out that the test is unnecessary and would not like to take the risk of not going for the test lest something go wrong. The Obstetrician may go for a C-section delivery even if the normal delivery is possible so as to make more money for herself and the clinic/hospital. The patient going through the labour pains is in no position to judge whether a normal delivery was feasible or not.
There is a large amount of black income generation in the financial sector because of the secrecy that operates in this sector. For instance, black incomes are converted to white incomes and vice versa via the book entry method in the stock markets. This is characterized as money laundering where dirty money is cleaned and put into legitimate activities. Similarly, bank accounts maybe opened and used for illegal funds transfer by circumventing the `know your customer’ (KYC) provisions of banking sector. The managers of banks connive in this because they are confident that they will not be caught given the secrecy. They have the discretionary powers to bend rules and they can do so for a consideration. Banks try to attract prized customers (big corporations and High Net Worth Individuals) from whom they can get large amount of businesses. For this they overlook the procedures and extend extra help which is often misused by businesses.
For the prized customers, the financial sector runs illegal services, like, helping them with transfer of funds to tax havens. In the recent financial collapse in 2008, failing banks were found to have hundreds of subsidiaries in tax havens. The only purpose of this could have been to help their clients to shift funds around via shell companies to escape taxation in their home countries or to launder their illegal funds. Thus, there is flight of capital from all countries, developed and developing, but perhaps the scale of such leakages is higher in the case of the developing countries and also they are net losers while the developed countries are net gainers so that the developing countries are characterized by flight of capital.
As the Financial Action Task Force Report of 1996 said, the volume of transactions in the financial system are huge so looking for the illegal transactions is looking for a needle in the haystack. In spite of the best efforts of the software experts, it has been impossible to trace the illegal transfers (a few trillion dollars) out of the hundreds of trillions of dollars of annual global transactions. This is an important aspect of the losing battle that national governments have fought against flight of capital and havala transfers.
The governments of tax haven countries are in league with the people trying to park illegal funds in the financial institutions under their jurisdiction. This is because it is a highly profitable business. Further, national governments in developing countries often connive in these activities since the top people are in league with those committing these illegalities. Why is that so?
For the black economy to be 50% of GDP in India and to be affecting all economic activities and to be prevalent amongst all the elite sections of society, it has to be systematic and systemic with laws systematically violated. It can not be ad-hoc or anecdotal, taking place some of the time and not at other times. So, in Delhi, building bye-laws are violated on a large scale and encroachment of public land has occurred on a vast scale. In this there is the connivance of the builders, politicians, bureaucrats, policemen and so on. That is, all those in charge of the law of the land are a party to it and each one of them makes an extra income by allowing the illegality to occur.
In brief, there is an underlying triad which operates to allow systematic illegality to take place. It has been suggested that the criminal has become a part of the nexus in the last three decades. Either the politician or the businessman is a criminal. Thus, a large number of politicians and elected representatives have cases against them. This has led to the spread of criminalization in society and resistance to illegality has weakened amongst the people and also the official machinery. Regulatory agencies (say, intelligence agencies, police men, inspectors and so on) have weakened due to their involvement in illegality. They are used to put a cover on the illegalities of their masters, the top businessmen, politicians and bureaucrats and so they indulge in this in the routine way and also do some small illegalities for lesser people.
Those in power are the ones indulging in illegality under the garb of acting within the law. Hence they are not interested in solving the problem of growing black economy and illegality in society. They benefit from it and encourage it. They have private information about how the black economy functions but are not interested in tackling it since that would hurt their interest. They make a pretence of solving the problem by changing rules and making new laws but all of them are subverted to find new ways of making black incomes.
In India, at least 40 Committees and Commissions have looked into the different aspects of the black economy over the last sixty years and have made thousands of suggestions and hundreds of them have been implemented but the black economy continues to proliferate. Thus, it is not that the policy maker does not know what should be done to tackle the problem but the political will is lacking amongst the elite sections because of their self interest. In this sense, the problem is a political one and one of weak democracy where those who are in power are not accountable to the people of the country. That is why the Right to Information is an important tool to fight illegality and black economy – it undermines secrecy. In India it has been implemented in a diluted way after 2005 and has produced some results and in the long run it holds hope of achieving much by narrowing the gap between legality and illegality.


Saturday, May 26, 2012

White Paper on Black Money: Much Ado About Nothing

White Paper on Black Money: Much Ado About Nothing.
Arun Kumar
CESP, SSS, JNU.
The Hindu, May 26, 2012.

A White Paper on a subject is issued by the government presumably to give a definitive view on it and inform the public of an important issue. The paper on Black Money does nothing of the sort. The opposition had also been demanding such a paper given the large number of scams that have been in the news. But the paper hardly deals with any of them.
The Finance Minister in his Preface admits that he is presenting `… this document now in response to an assurance given to the Parliament.’ The implication is that he is not giving anything definitive. He also says that he would have been happier if he `… could have included the conclusions of reports of three premier institutions that have been tasked to quantify the magnitude of black money.’ It is surprising that these three institutions are only looking at the magnitude rather than the gamut of issues that the black economy throws up. Thus, even after these reports are presented we may not have a better understanding. After all, knowing the quantum of black money in the country is not the same thing as analysing how to deal with the problem.
The White Paper consists of five chapters and several appendices spread over about 100 pages. The chapters are on Estimation, Institutions to deal with the problem, Framework for tackling the problem and the Way forward. This seems like a lot. The Report lifts many arguments from this author’s book on the subject and from these columns in the last year and a quarter. But it flatters to deceive.
The title itself is incorrect. What is estimated is the annual generation of black incomes in an economy and not how much black money there is in the economy. The various estimates mentioned are of black income and not black money. The definition of `black money’ given itself is erroneous with money confused for assets. Even an elementary economics or commerce text book suggests that money is only one part of the portfolio of assets that an economic agent may own. Hence referring to the whole by a part is not appropriate. The definitional confusion is made worse when it is stated that `the term black money would also include income that is concealed from public authorities’. It is like saying that what we will call a `herd of cows’ would also include `hippos’.
Be that as it may, the report does not give an estimate but simply quotes estimates from reports that were written more than 25 years back; ignoring later literature that has also brought about greater clarity in the matter. The first chapter ends with the title, `Need for more research’. Why state the obvious? The earlier reports that this Paper relies upon had pointed to how big the problem already was, so why has the government not studied it since then?
It quotes the GFI report of 2010 on how much illicit flows have taken place from India since independence. The GFI report itself mentions that their figure is a gross under estimate. It is convenient to quote from the GFI report because it gives a low figure but why has the government in the last year and a half not made the effort to remove deficiencies in the GFI methodology and used the data it has in its archives to arrive at a better estimate. The intelligence agencies and the various organizations collect a lot of data that could have been used.
The Paper does service to the public by listing the many agencies involved in dealing with the problem. So far so good, but why have these large number of agencies failed in the task they should have been performing, namely, checking the growth of the black economy? What are the problems they have faced? Why prosecution fails most of the time whether relating to the income tax department or police or the CBI? Why therefore there is contempt for law amongst the powerful and increasing number of people resort to illegality resulting in the growth of the black economy?
A large number of laws to check the black economy are mentioned but there is no analysis of why they have been ineffective in controlling the problem. A law on paper differs substantially from its practice. Much space is devoted in the Paper to the international treaties and efforts at the global level. This is convenient since the black wealth held outside is small compared to what is held in the country. Further, it is far more difficult to get at the black wealth held abroad compared to tackling it what is held in the country. Thus, it becomes convenient to discuss the former rather than the latter.
Most of the wealth held abroad illegally will not be in the names of the actual beneficiaries but in the names of shell companies and so on. Thus, most of it cannot be tracked to an Indian entity. The data on deposits in Swiss Banks given in the Paper indicates that Indians have between 0.13 and 0.29% of the deposits. This should be no surprise since the illicit funds would not be held in the names of the beneficiaries but others. There is no analysis of this problem or of how money is transferred out of the country. We could have been enlightened if information with the intelligence agencies about tax havens and the modus operandi of taking funds out of the country or of generating incomes outside India were revealed.
The interface between the judiciary and the investigative agencies is an important aspect of non-implementation of the laws of the land and the contempt they have come to be held in by the public. That is the cause of the judicial delays with 4 crore cases pending. Even routine matters that should be decided on in a few months drag on for years. This encourages illegality and the prevalence of the black economy. The functioning of the judiciary needed to be dissected.
The paper lists real estate, bullion and jewellery as some of the important activities where black money is generated. This again reflects a definitional confusion. These constitute transfers of black savings from one individual to another. So, these activities circulate black incomes but do not generate them like other activities do that are counted in GDP.
In the chapter `Way Forward’, strategies are listed but again no new ground is broken. As has been pointed out earlier in these columns, DTAA and TIEA are about declared incomes abroad and not black savings held abroad. Similarly, voluntary disclosure schemes have been discredited in the past. The CAG has said that it makes people into habitual tax offenders. It turns honest people into dishonest ones. Further, the Mauritius route was created deliberately by policy makers as an amnesty scheme and as the Paper notes, it is successfully used for round tripping. The government knew it and opposed the challenge to the Mauritius route in the Supreme Court. The White Paper fails to make an analysis of this issue.
The paper skirts the most important question, namely, why laws do not get implemented? It avoids mentioning the nexus between the politicians, the officialdom and the businessmen which drives the black economy? How the criminals have entered the nexus so that today many politicians and businessmen have a criminal background and have contempt for law. Why have the large number of steps taken in the past to control the black economy have not worked?
The answer to the many acts of omission and commission in the Paper lies in the fact that the existence and the control of the black economy are political questions. Dealing with the black economy is not a narrowly technical question that can be tackled by a few more laws or a few steps here and there or strengthening of a few provisions of law or through computerization. Whether it is the ruling party or the opposition, national or regional parties, all of them have been mired in the black economy. The question is one of political will. Should the Paper not have called a spade a spade rather than avoiding the difficult question all together?
But then a White Paper is a political document and not a technical one. It helps the government white wash its image. It must divert the attention of the public from the difficult questions. After all it cannot be an instrument of generating the political will to action - a task that only movements and the political process can accomplish.

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Union Budget 2012-13: Missing a Vision

Union Budget 2012-13: Missing a Vision
Arun Kumar
CESP, SSS, JNU.
Mainstream, March 24, 2012.

I.          Introduction: The Context of `Reform’
The IMF Managing Director commented days after the presentation of the Union Budget 2012-13 that India should have the `appetite for change’. Apparently she implied that the Finance Minister should have pushed forward the necessary reforms in policies. She further added that there was need for `leadership and consensus’ and this implies a disappointment with the budget as it was presented. Two points arise. What does she mean by reform and whether she is aware of the political compulsions within which the budget was framed? No matter what a stream of thinking may say about separating economics from politics, the two are deeply inter-twined.
What is the reform that the IMF MD wants? As the head of the international institution which has been pushing the interest of global capital, it is clear she is speaking for that interest alone to the exclusion of all others. It is not that businesses have not retained the concessions they have obtained in the past, like, the tax expenditures of over Rs.5 lakh crore or many new ones like, sops to investments and especially foreign investment. Perhaps, contrary to the expectations of the reformers that they would get major new concessions the budget contains threats to their capacity to generate black incomes, like, measures to close loopholes in tax laws and some with retrospective effect. The IMF represents a powerful vested interest in our policy making.
Since 1991 when the New Economic Policies (NEP) were introduced `reform’ has stood for pro business polices – thus, it is a politically loaded term in a deeply divided society. Due to the pressure from international institutions like, the IMF and the World Bank (and their local business allies) `reform’ has globally come to stand for pro-business market based policies. This has become the universal meaning of the term instead of the dictionary meaning `change for the better’. Thus, politics and economics in times of `reform’ are deeply intertwined and not separate from each other as often claimed.

II.        The Crisis Ridden Context of the Union Budget
The budget was presented in the midst of a crisis for the ruling UPA government. The poor performance in the recently concluded State elections, especially in Uttar Pradesh, had demoralised the ruling Congress party. The Railway budget presented two days earlier had resulted in a political storm in the UPA with the TMC demanding the resignation of the Railway Minister, its own party man, for proposing across the board passenger fare hike. It was expected that Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the Finance Minister and the most experienced Minister in the government would manage matters in such a way that the Congress party’s declining fortunes would stabilize somewhat if not begin to look up. It was expected that there would be deft political management.
On the economic front, the FM was faced with a slowing economy and a persisting global crisis.  Since the two factors are inter-linked, the national economic challenge is getting more intractable. Due to opening up of the economy since 1991, all major markets in India are impacted by global events. Over these matters the national government has little control so the economy is buffeted. This has been the case with commodity prices, like, petroleum products and food, the financial markets which have witnessed wild fluctuations and foreign trade which has seen adverse movements.
The situation is worsened by the internal challenge which is being posed by the `reforms’ based on the philosophy of `growth at any cost’ resulting in deteriorating conditions for the workers and the environment which in turn adversely impacts the workers. This policy has resulted in growing inequity resulting in rising social tension across the nation. It led to a decline in the growth of demand in the economy and to the slow down in the industrial sector witnessed in the last year.
In the name of encouraging private businesses, `reforms’ have allowed a permissive environment that has led to a rapidly growing black economy and to increased corruption. The consequence has again been adverse for the workers and income distribution. It led to crony capitalism getting entrenched in society. Important decisions have been taken on the basis of contacts. As the public finally reacted to it and movements erupted since 2010, the government’s credibility has been challenged and it became crisis ridden. This has slowed down investment decisions and has become another cause for the slowdown in the economy.
The challenges for the economy are many and the Union Budget as the largest economic event of the year was expected to take care of some of them. For instance, the PM himself has said that it is a crying shame that there is massive malnourishment in the country. Per capita consumption of foodgrains has declined sharply since 1991. The quality of education and health, where available to the poor, is indifferent at best. Governance is weak due to the black economy and consequent policy failure. It is not that the nation lacks the resources for development but the growing black economy which has become more than 50% of GDP results in the inability of the government to access them and the private sector fritters them away.
Last year, the global economic crisis worsened after a brief pause in 2010. This time it is not emanating from the world of finance as in 2007 and 2008 but from political factors in USA and the Euro zone. Hence it is deeper than the crisis starting 2007-08. The nation needs to take advance steps to protect itself from the ill effects of the likely global crisis in the coming years. For this it must defend its markets to protect the poor and boost the economy. This cannot be done by opening the markets more as the `reformers’ (including the (IMF MD) would want the policy makers to do. That would only lead to demand leaking out with little benefit to India. Like, in 2008, expenditures must be increased in rural areas and on those items which do not lead to demand for foreign goods – increase expenditures on the poor. The Budget just presented does not quite do that and in fact expenditures on such an important scheme like, MGNREGS is being slashed from Rs.40,000 crore to Rs.33,000 crore even though the FM liberally praises the scheme in para 108 of his speech.
           
III.       Some Budgetary Proposals
The Union Budget for 2012-13 plans for an expenditure of Rs.14,90,925 crore or about 15% of GDP with an expected GDP of Rs.101,59,884 crore. These are huge sums of money and can finance a very large number of schemes for all sections of population. Thus, even if the overall direction of the budget may not be clear or even in the wrong direction, the Finance Minister can claim to have done a lot.
Under `Inclusion’, the Finance Minister has announced increased allocations for SC and ST sub plans of about 18%. For Food Security, there is a 58% increase on Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS). Mid day meals provision has been increased by 15%. Allocation for rural drinking water and sanitation has been increased by 27%. Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) has been allotted 20% more. Backward Regions Grant Fund scheme has been given about 22% more. Budget for Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) has been increased by 21.7%. Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA) is allotted nearly 29% more. For National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) allocation has been raised by 15%.
In addition one may list a few of the schemes that will in some way or the other benefit the marginalized sections: creation of mega handloom clusters, technical support to handloom weavers, market access to Micro and Small Enterprises, Multi-sectoral Nutrition Augmentation Programme, Scheme for Empowerment of Adolescent Girls, SABLA, Rajiv Gandhi Panchayat Sashaktikaran Abhiyan (RGPSA), Rural Infrastructure Development Fund, National Urban Health Mission, Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Yojana (PMSSY), Swarnjayanti Gram Swarozgar Yojana (SGS), National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM), Mahila Kisan Sashaktikaran Pariyojana, Women’s SHG’s Development Fund, Bharat Livelihoods Foundation of India, Prime Minister’s Employment Generation Programme (PMEGP), National Skill Development Fund (NSDF), Indira Gandhi National Widow Pension Scheme and Indira Gandhi National Disability Pension Scheme, National Family Benefit scheme and a co-contributory scheme SWAVALAMBAN.
While the FM talks a lot about rural development and according it priority the Central Plan figures do not bear this out. In 2011-12, expenditures on this head are less than budgeted by 13%. Further, the amount budgeted for 2012-13 is less than what was spent in 2010-11, in spite of the high rate of inflation. Agriculture and Allied activities are expected to increase by 18% but in 2011-12 less was spent than in 2010-11. How can one have faith that this pattern would not be repeated? It also brings into question the government’s good intentions regarding the rural sector and agriculture.
While the FM’s speech devotes a major portion to these items of concern to the marginalized, in terms of total allocations they are small. A bulk of the expenditures will be on Revenue Account (Rs.12,86,109 crore) and that too on non-Plan (Rs.8,65,596 crore) and a large part of the latter is pre committed for interest payment (Rs.3,19,759 crore). The three big items of non-Plan Revenue Account add up to 72% - these are Interest payment, Defence and Subsidies. Further, establishment expenses are estimated to be about Rs.1,15,352 crore and most of it is on non-Plan account. With this added, 85.33% of the amount is committed and not available for development. Given that Defence is a holy cow and subsidies a consequence of poverty and other policy mistakes which force subsidies to be given, the over all leeway for the government to spend on essential schemes listed above is rather less.
 Establishment expenses are for the running of ministries and departments and there will be an estimated 34,11,340 employees in 2012-13, an increase of 64,667 employees over 2011-12. Of the total employment, Railways account for 38.9%, the Police for 29.8%, the Home Ministry as a whole (including Police) for 30.55%, Ministry of communication for 13.93% and Ministry of Finance for 5.42%. All of them together account for 88.83% of the total employment in the Central government establishment.
Even though the total expenditures were more than the budgeted amount by about 5%, there was a 2.5% shortfall in capital expenditures in 2011-12 compared to what was budgeted and the amount spent was almost the same as in 2010-11. The Plan expenditure was less by about Rs.15,000 crore (3.5%). This is not unexpected since it happens many a times that the Plan expenditures are less than what was shown in the budget. The Central Plan outlay was less by Rs.34,000 crore or about 6%. If this target had been met, the deficits would have been much higher. Similarly, if the expenditures on rural development and MGNREGS had been as planned, the deficit would have been even higher. The point is that it is the non-Plan revenue account expenditures that have gone up beyond what was budgeted.
In 2012-13, the Expenditures are slated to go up by 13%. But the Capital Account expenditures are budgeted to go up by almost 30% and Plan expenditures by 22.2%.  Plan expenditure is budgeted at 34.9% and Capital expenditures at 13.75% of the total expenditure. These are up substantially but given the past experience it is likely that these targets may not be met since the government will be under pressure to show a lower deficit in the budget to meet its fiscal deficit target.

IV.       Budgetary Arithmetic in Doubt
Revenue receipts of the government have turned out to be less in 2011-12 because the tax collections are less and so are the disinvestments. As pointed out above, since the expenditures are more while the receipts are less, the Revenue and the Fiscal deficits have turned out to be much more (4.4% and 5.9%) than targeted (3.4% and 4.6%). Accordingly, borrowings have risen sharply by 26.4%. This will lead to a sharp rise in the interest burden next year. But this is not adequately reflected in the next year’s interest payment figures.
This raises the question of whether the FM has given a realistic budget or is there likely to be slippage? Revenue receipts are taken to rise by about 22%. An optimistic figure is assumed so that the Revenue and the Fiscal deficits can be shown to be less than this year.
The Services Tax and the Union Excise duties have been increased to meet this increased target even though it is known that this will be inflationary. Further, this will lead to a lowering of demand and that will lower the growth rate of the economy. This has not been factored in while assuming a higher growth rate of the economy for the coming year. If the growth rate turns out to be less (as was the case for the current year, 2011-12) then the entire calculation of revenue will not be correct and the deficit can turn out to be larger.
Further, if inflation rate increases, it will be difficult to cut subsidies and DA payment to government servants and pensioner will be higher. The government has instead assumed a sharp drop in subsidies by 12%. The Government is also cutting back on MGNREGS. If these expectations are not fulfilled then there will be a higher deficit.
The Finance Minister bases his budgetary calculations on the basis of the projections of growth of the economy. So if the growth turns out to be less as it did in 2011-12, the budget also does not fulfil its targets. The FM has expressed the hope that things would improve in 2012-13 but the basis of this optimism is not clear. In his speech, he has stated,

I expect India’s GDP growth in 2012-13 to be 7.6 per cent, +/- 0.25 per cent. I expect average inflation to be lower next year. I also expect the current account deficit to be smaller, aided by improvement in domestic financial savings”.

            In his speech last year also he expressed similar sentiments but they have been belied,
“ … the Indian economy is expected to grow at 9 per cent with an outside band of +/- 0.25 per cent in 2011-12. I expect the average inflation to be lower next year and the current account deficit smaller and better managed with higher domestic savings rate and stable capital flows”.

The growth rate of the economy was expected to increase from 8.4% in 2010-11 to 9 % in 2011-12 but the actual growth rate may be less than 6.9%. Thus, the underlying assumptions in drafting the budget turned out to be incorrect. As pointed out above, revenues have been lower while expenditures have been higher or not spent on certain key schemes and therefore, deficits are higher than budgeted.

V.            Need for Basic Change in the Philosophy of Development
While one way of looking at the large number of schemes for the marginalized sections of society, listed above, is that the government is concerned about the lot of the poor. But the constant increase in the number of schemes and the allocations to them would suggest that the government is not successful in achieving its objective of improving the lot of the marginalized. This can be because the schemes may be inadequate to the task or that there is some fundamental flaw in the government’s basic policies. Both factors appear to be true.
Allocations are indeed inadequate for the task at hand. The problem is compounded by the black economy, so that funds do not reach the ground and of the amount that reaches the ground a part is wasted and/or siphoned out. Thus, there is large scale policy failure especially for the marginalized sections whose voice is weak.
The second aspect is equally crucial. There is a basic flaw in the government’s policy framework which is based on `growth at any cost’ with little concern for distribution and the environment. Fundamental problems are emanating from this philosophy so that the various schemes continuing and the new ones being launched are mere palliatives. Further, as the new schemes are launched the focus shifts from some of the earlier ones and they tend to languish without serving much of the purpose.
Take for instance, MGNREGS scheme the funding for which is sought to be cut on the ground that the money allotted is not being fully spent. The scheme has come in for fulsome praise from the FM in para 108 and yet it is sought to be curtailed. Rather than identify the reasons for the shortfall and make it more effective and expand it, the opposite is being done, reflecting a casual approach.
The increase in the number of schemes and additional allocations for them result in the expansion of bureaucracy. Given the state of our bureaucracy, this results in greater amount of corruption and waste of funds. Thus, the dilemma is that the marginalized need the schemes but in the long run it does not solve the problem and perpetuates them. The `reformers’ are all too happy to use the argument of corruption and ineffectiveness to get the expenditures on the marginalized sections curtailed. This enables them to get more for themselves.
The reformers see the problems as emanating only from supply side. They believe that the market will solve all problems. They do not see that the marginalized are even more marginal in the market and need state intervention. The reformers have less faith in human beings and more in automation and machines. So, the Adhar card for which a lot allocation is being made is expected to solve problems of delivery through direct cash transfers which will eliminate the human being from transactions. While these kinds of technological fixes can solve some of the problems they can also create new ones.
For instance, with ATMs while delays maybe eliminated crime of a different kind has come. Salary payment directly into the employees bank account has eliminated a kind of corruption that used to flourish but black income generation has only increased since new forms of it have emerged. What also needs to be remembered is that there is always a human element behind all technology and that can foul up its use in unanticipated ways.

VI.       Conclusion
The analysis in this piece points to many positive aspects of the budget just presented by the FM. There are the various schemes to tackle the rapidly growing black economy. There is the promise of a white paper on the black economy and so on. However, the positives are overwhelmed by the overall lack of a direction, especially for the marginalized. This is a result of a lack of a long term vision amongst policy makers and to the manipulation of the budgetary arithmetic to suit the needs of the business community.
Education presents a concrete example of a lack of clear long term vision fouling up increased allocations. Problems in education are not only persisting but are getting aggravated. While there is numerical expansion, quality is being compromised. Many even doubt that there is numerical expansion since data is not very reliable. Children in fifth standard do not even have the skills of what a first standard child should theoretically have. Further, even though there has been a rapid expansion of institutions of excellence, like, the IITs, IIMs and Central Universities, standards are on the decline.
Institutions are not just buildings but people running them. These elite institutions had been facing shortage of good faculty and this has increased as more or less the same number of capable faculty members are now spread across many more institutions. Thus, standards are on the decline in the existing good institutions which are sought to be replicated. There is no quick fix to having more of higher education but the policy makers think that there is one. They are resorting to standardization in all forms of ways without understanding that standards cannot be achieved via standardization. The two are often the anti-thesis of each other.
To be fair to the FM, this lack of a long term vision is not a recent phenomenon but a long term one. The problem has perhaps been further aggravated because the government has been a crisis ridden one and has not had the time to think through what it wishes to do. It seems to not even be able to cater to its political interest. By presenting an inflationary budget it is not making itself popular while it needs to regain its appeal with the public. Whatever the implications of the budget for the ruling party, for the nation this is tragic since there is a need for a government that can face the multifaceted challenges confronting the country.