Interests of the unemployed: A radical agenda for Obama
by Arun Kumar
The Tribune, November 20, 2008.
Against all odds, Mr Barack Obama has won the Presidency of the US only to be confronted with extraordinary odds — incomparably greater than those faced by any recently elected US President. Economically, socially and politically, the country and the world are in a state of deep crisis. The US as the leader of the world is both a cause of the problems and a possible source of solutions. Without the US being a part of any solution, it is unlikely that the world, as it is, will be able to resolve its problems. In this sense, it is said the whole world should have a vote in the US presidential elections.
The G-20 heads met under the leadership of a lame-duck US President, Mr Bush, in a largely futile talking exercise. Our own Prime Minister made noises about how he saw the crisis coming while till the other day he was saying that there is no crisis; does credibility matter. Mr Obama did not participate, perhaps due to his irreconcilable differences with Mr Bush who only talked of the free markets. Mr Obama’s presence may have given the wrong signals and made his own task more difficult when he takes over in two months. However, this delay could be very expensive.
Not only is the economic weight of the US so large that it determines world economic events but its financial and political clout sways other countries politically and socially as well. It draws the best in the world to its universities and think tanks and leads all others in research in almost all fields. Thus, it is able to set the agenda for the entire world in intellectual terms and also because it has lobbies pushing for its interest in almost all parts of the world. It dominates the multilateral agencies and that is another important source of its influence. From issues of poverty removal, research in health, agenda for the environment, nature of the financial architecture, fight against terrorism and money laundering, etc, the US moulds world events.
To be able to lead in such an extraordinarily complex world on such a broad front requires statespersonship of a high order among the leaders. This has been missing for decades. The US and, following its lead, most other governments in the world have been governed by narrowly defined short-term self-interest. One may say, what is new? But in a far more complex world, old ways will not do. Narrowness of approach is a recipe for disaster and pay-back time has now come. The world as we have known it can hardly survive.
All the above listed problems have a common source, a belief in a narrowly defined national and individual interest, based on greed and unlimited exploitation. Thus, respect for nature and other people has been at a discount. While this was tolerated earlier, today this has serious implications, especially at the economic plane and now we are confronted with a collapse for which no one has an answer.
The governments all over the world are scrambling with packages to salvage their financial institutions and their economies. Huge sums of money are on offer (capital injection, loans, etc.) — amounting to about $5 trillion. The financial bubble, which is in the process of collapse and is dragging down the real economy, was a result of deregulation of the financial markets and an undiluted pursuit of lucre and the resulting massive disparities in society.
The financial assets created (in hundreds of trillions of dollars) were a multiple of the size of the real world economy (around 60 trillion dollars) so that the latter does not have the resources to resolve the problems created by the former. Governments can neither replicate the markets nor their intervention is adequate to stop the financial bubble from collapsing.
The financial bubble consists of borrowings and lending by various economic entities. As the bubble deflates, while asset values decline, the liabilities remain. Hence institutions develop huge holes in their balance sheets. Since the various financial entities are interlinked through borrowing and lending, as one institution collapses and is unable to pay its lenders, the latter runs into problems and this ricochets to yet others leading to further collapse. A vicious cycle sets in and institutions lose trust in each other and stop lending to others and instead try to accumulate capital to cover their own declining asset base. The money given by the government goes to support their own asset base with little lent to anyone else.
While the build-up of the financial bubble is gradual and systematic, its collapse is sudden and chaotic and that is why it is beyond anyone’s control. Release of liquidity and cuts in interest rates do not spur investments and the economy enters a “liquidity trap”. In this scenario, it appears inevitable that the financial markets would collapse and nothing in the short run can save them.
Unfortunately, businesses are inter-linked, a large number of the firms dealing in real products and services also were involved in the financial markets to invest their funds or to cover their risk (say, in foreign exchange). These firms are also suffering losses. Further, they are confronted with a slow- down in demand and a tightening of the credit markets since borrowing and lending has frozen. Thus, the growth rate of the real output which had already started declining in 2007 is now in negative territory over large parts of the advanced world.
Consequently, unemployment is rising dramatically all over the globalised world. This is going to bring real pain to a vast majority of the people while the collapse of the financial world hits only a small percentage of the rich and the upper middle class populations. The collapse of the latter is inevitable but if the former collapses, it would be catastrophic. The choice before the governments is clear — should funds be thrown into the bottomless pit of the financial sector without any real benefits or should they be used to retrieve the real economy and keep it going?
The US government is an establishment run by various vested interests, and the financial sector interests are deeply entrenched in it — they have been running the Treasury and the Fed for long. Their interest is seen as the main interest. That is why the poor are not getting help with their houses or General Motors is not getting $25 billion while AIG has got $150 billion. Mr Obama would have to overcome this bias in policy and put together a radically new plan. This would require him to change his set of advisers and those in the establishment, but that is easier said than done. Mr Obama’s win was like climbing Mount Everest, but can one do so everyday? Or, having climbed it once, can that become a habit? The world needs it to be so. Will Mr Obama, a left-leaning suspect in the eyes of the conservatives, be cautious and play safe? This would be tragic since there is no option but to carry forward a radical programme. His self-imposed limits will determine his achievements or failures and those of the world in the coming years. If he could take on the establishment in the economic sphere, there would be hope that he could also do so in other aspects of life.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Global Financial Crisis and Government Intervention: Surplus Generation, Gearing Ratio, Asymmetry of Financial Multipliers and Other Considerations
Global Financial Crisis and Government Intervention:
Surplus Generation, Gearing Ratio, Asymmetry of Financial Multipliers
and Other Considerations
Arun Kumar
CESP/SSS, JNU, N Delhi 110067.
arunkumar1000@hotmail.com.
Published: 'Accountancy Business and the Public Interest' Vol. 8, No. 1. February 3, 2009.
http://visar.csustan.edu/aaba/aabajourVol8-No1.html
I. INTRODUCTION: CRISIS NOT ANTICIPATED BY THE EXPERTS.
II. MONEY, RISKY FINANCIAL ASSETS AND UNREGULATED INVESTMENT BANKING
III. PROFITABILITY OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND CONSEQUENCES.
III. a. Financial Assets and their profitability
III. b. Anatomy of the Financial Crisis
IV. BASE FOR FINANCIAL ASSETS CREATION: IMPACT OF LOW US SAVINGS PROPENSITY, WAR EFFORT AND TAX HAVENS
V. MONEY, MULTIPLIERS AND GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN A CRISIS
V. a. Non-Functionality of the Multipliers
V. b. Limits to Government Intervention in a Crisis: Asymmetric Multipliers
VI. CONCLUSION.
End Notes.
References.
Graphs
Completed: November 11, 2008
Abstract of the Paper:
The paper analyses the roots of the current global economic crisis and the reasons for the failure of the massive government interventions to control the crisis.
The paper tries to understand whether the crisis is a generalized crisis of capitalism or a specific crisis originating from the financial sector. If it is the latter, a reform of the financial system would have been enough to resolve the crisis but if it is the former then a more basic solution would be required.
The paper analyses the deregulated financial markets and the nature of their instability. The paper presents a simple model linking the returns on financial instruments to capital gains and the gearing ratio. As the gearing ratio rises, the instability increases. Further, the paper points to the inter locked balance sheets of the financial institutions so that as collapse sets in it spreads from one to the other. It points to the fact that when the asset values fall, liabilities do not decline in value to that the balance sheets have big holes in them and this is particularly the case due to the provision of mark to market.
It traces the trigger for the instability in the real economy to rising disparities, the growing challenge to the dollarization of the world economy, rising speculative activities, falling savings propensity of the US economy so that more and more of the assets of the US economy were being owned by foreigners and the surplus generated in the US economy was going out. This was being aggravated by the growing use of the tax havens and the rising war effort and the internal security expenditures. All this led both to the creation of the sub-prime assets in the US economy and their eventual collapse.
It is pointed out that in the current crisis, trust has disappeared amongst borrowers and lenders and credit has frozen. Entities wish to remain liquid. Consequently, the money multiplier is tending to one and the financial multiplier to zero. In the circumstances, the monetary authority’s steps to reflate the economy become ineffective even though under normal circumstances, they would have led to hyper inflation. The economy appears to be in a liquidity trap. Fiscal steps also do not yield the required results due to the downward adjustment of the private sector’s expectations about profits and investments.
The paper points out that an orderly reversal of the financial markets is not feasible because while there maybe micro reversibility there is macro irreversibility. It is like in a random walk where each step can be reversed but the probability of going back to the origin is low.
The paper discusses the need for global coordination of fiscal steps otherwise demand may leak out and leave the economy trying to inflate itself in deeper crisis. It points to the dangers of countries going in for protectionism and suggests that the architecture of the International financial institutions is likely to change because the US position has been severely dented. Further, it suggests that the free market paradigm is likely to undergo a rethink and there would be greater receptivity in the public to alternatives.
Surplus Generation, Gearing Ratio, Asymmetry of Financial Multipliers
and Other Considerations
Arun Kumar
CESP/SSS, JNU, N Delhi 110067.
arunkumar1000@hotmail.com.
Published: 'Accountancy Business and the Public Interest' Vol. 8, No. 1. February 3, 2009.
http://visar.csustan.edu/aaba/aabajourVol8-No1.html
I. INTRODUCTION: CRISIS NOT ANTICIPATED BY THE EXPERTS.
II. MONEY, RISKY FINANCIAL ASSETS AND UNREGULATED INVESTMENT BANKING
III. PROFITABILITY OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND CONSEQUENCES.
III. a. Financial Assets and their profitability
III. b. Anatomy of the Financial Crisis
IV. BASE FOR FINANCIAL ASSETS CREATION: IMPACT OF LOW US SAVINGS PROPENSITY, WAR EFFORT AND TAX HAVENS
V. MONEY, MULTIPLIERS AND GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN A CRISIS
V. a. Non-Functionality of the Multipliers
V. b. Limits to Government Intervention in a Crisis: Asymmetric Multipliers
VI. CONCLUSION.
End Notes.
References.
Graphs
Completed: November 11, 2008
Abstract of the Paper:
The paper analyses the roots of the current global economic crisis and the reasons for the failure of the massive government interventions to control the crisis.
The paper tries to understand whether the crisis is a generalized crisis of capitalism or a specific crisis originating from the financial sector. If it is the latter, a reform of the financial system would have been enough to resolve the crisis but if it is the former then a more basic solution would be required.
The paper analyses the deregulated financial markets and the nature of their instability. The paper presents a simple model linking the returns on financial instruments to capital gains and the gearing ratio. As the gearing ratio rises, the instability increases. Further, the paper points to the inter locked balance sheets of the financial institutions so that as collapse sets in it spreads from one to the other. It points to the fact that when the asset values fall, liabilities do not decline in value to that the balance sheets have big holes in them and this is particularly the case due to the provision of mark to market.
It traces the trigger for the instability in the real economy to rising disparities, the growing challenge to the dollarization of the world economy, rising speculative activities, falling savings propensity of the US economy so that more and more of the assets of the US economy were being owned by foreigners and the surplus generated in the US economy was going out. This was being aggravated by the growing use of the tax havens and the rising war effort and the internal security expenditures. All this led both to the creation of the sub-prime assets in the US economy and their eventual collapse.
It is pointed out that in the current crisis, trust has disappeared amongst borrowers and lenders and credit has frozen. Entities wish to remain liquid. Consequently, the money multiplier is tending to one and the financial multiplier to zero. In the circumstances, the monetary authority’s steps to reflate the economy become ineffective even though under normal circumstances, they would have led to hyper inflation. The economy appears to be in a liquidity trap. Fiscal steps also do not yield the required results due to the downward adjustment of the private sector’s expectations about profits and investments.
The paper points out that an orderly reversal of the financial markets is not feasible because while there maybe micro reversibility there is macro irreversibility. It is like in a random walk where each step can be reversed but the probability of going back to the origin is low.
The paper discusses the need for global coordination of fiscal steps otherwise demand may leak out and leave the economy trying to inflate itself in deeper crisis. It points to the dangers of countries going in for protectionism and suggests that the architecture of the International financial institutions is likely to change because the US position has been severely dented. Further, it suggests that the free market paradigm is likely to undergo a rethink and there would be greater receptivity in the public to alternatives.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Growing Uncertainty: Time to Invest in Real Economy
Growing uncertainty: Time to invest in real economy
by Arun Kumar
The Tribune, November 5, 2008.
These are extraordinary times, so strange and unexpected things occurring should not surprise us. The only thing predictable is that one cannot predict correctly (that also applies to the Indian cricket team!). The US government, after promising under different heads a few trillion dollars, seems to be fighting a losing battle with the economy steadily declining.
The Indian government, after so much song and dance in the last few years about the need for strict adherence to FRBM, has thrown it out of the window by announcing huge expenditures. Much was also made of the RBI’s autonomy but that is also a thing of the past with the government requiring it to act quickly and, of all things, it has released almost Rs 2,70,000 crore of liquidity in a month — an unthinkable amount till recently.
The latest data from the US economy points to a worsening economic situation. For the first time in several decades, consumer expenditures have dropped and that too sharply. Worse, this data is for the quarter immediately preceding the big pain induced by the collapse in the financial sector in mid September. So, analysts have argued that the last quarter of 2008 is likely to be much worse.
There are straws in the wind, suggesting that the recent rise in the stock markets is a blip. Reports suggest that the largest insurance firm AIG, which has been given a total bailout package of $123 billion, has more or less exhausted this amount in a month. The bailout of $ 85 billion announced in September looked huge but another $38 billion had to be given and even that has disappeared into a bottomless pit. How much more would be needed by the AIG?
That depends on the liabilities on its books and how much have its assets degraded in the present situation of rapid economic decline. All this indicates the difficulties that every business, and not just financial institutions, may be currently facing. All of them may be headed for difficulties because the assets on their books have lost value with the decline of the markets while their huge liabilities may be intact. The balance sheet may have huge holes.
The largest Japanese bank, Mitsubishi Financial Group that took equity in Morgan Stanley to bail it out, is now in trouble. It is trying to raise an equity of $10.7 billion. The shares held by Mitsubishi have fallen in value by 40 per cent. This has shaken confidence not only in Japan but also in the rest of the world. So entities that may look healthy at one point of time and may be asked to bail- out the not-so-healthy ones may themselves be in trouble very quickly not only because they took on another collapsing entity but because their own portfolio has degraded — not in years but in days and months.
The clear lesson is that given the disastrous financial situation worldwide, one does not know which entity is headed for trouble in the coming days and months. Under the circumstances, every entity is protecting itself. One way to do so is to become conservative and not trust others, not invest, etc. This becomes an added source of trouble.
The situation has gone out of the control of governments as far as the financial markets are concerned. The losses in the books have become so large that even the governments do not have the resources to save these entities. The monetary authorities have lost their power to regulate since their instruments are now blunted by the loss of trust and abnormal events in the economy. They may lower interest rates, but investments in the current situation of growing uncertainty will not rise. They may release money but it will simply sit with economic agents since they do not want to take on fresh commitments and want to stay liquid rather than commit funds. In brief, demand has collapsed.
The real economy is being severely dented since most businesses have also indulged in buying the financial instruments that are now in trouble. After all, they like to make as high a profit as possible and the financial markets were promising that and luring all and sundry — everyone was trapped by greed.
An Indian conglomerate bought a Europe firm at what was then thought to be a high price. Today the price of that asset would have collapsed in the market but the debts taken to buy the company would stand. The financial situation of the firm must be poor. The same company also bought two more firms later for the sake of prestige and again they would have taken a hit. How this firm would fare in the coming months is a moot question.
Assocham put out a report that soon some major industries will retrench in a big way. Not so surprisingly, within a week, they have withdrawn the report under pressure for the government which is still claiming that the economy would grow at 7 per cent. Is this feasible, given that the industrial growth has fallen to 1.5 per cent for the latest month and major parts of the tertiary sector, like the financial sector, hotels, tourism, trade, travel and housing, are seeing sharp declines? The Finance Minister has claimed that more jobs would be generated this year than during the entire NDA regime — a poor game of political one upmanship.
The problem is likely to aggravate as time passes because the world economy is headed into a prolonged recession or even a depression. Major Indian industries are likely to slow down or show negative growth. Can industry carry surplus labour in times when its bottomline is being hit due to lack of orders and build-up of inventories? Its losses can only mount even faster and it would sink sooner than later unless a national strategy is worked out as to how India will cope with the coming difficult time. There is no point in living in denial and not preparing.
Malaysia delinked itself from international capital flows in 1997 to save itself from the ongoing economic collapse in South-East Asia. The US and the IMF lectured it then for wrong policies but later held it up as a model for others. We also need to protect our interest and not open ourselves indiscriminately. The FIIs brought in funds but now they are withdrawing and leading to the collapse of the stock market. The government is opening up the insurance sector to greater FDI. In these times when the insurance sector is also in deep trouble (AIG being the biggest one) where will these funds come from? If they do come, would they also not try to quickly exploit the situation to shore up their parent companies, etc?
We need to invest in our real economy, keep employment up, encourage investment and keep our savings moving within the economy and not let them leak out through opening up the sector. Are we learning anything from anyone? If not, that is not unusual but a part of the predictability.
arunkumar1000@hotmail.com
The Tribune, November 5, 2008.
These are extraordinary times, so strange and unexpected things occurring should not surprise us. The only thing predictable is that one cannot predict correctly (that also applies to the Indian cricket team!). The US government, after promising under different heads a few trillion dollars, seems to be fighting a losing battle with the economy steadily declining.
The Indian government, after so much song and dance in the last few years about the need for strict adherence to FRBM, has thrown it out of the window by announcing huge expenditures. Much was also made of the RBI’s autonomy but that is also a thing of the past with the government requiring it to act quickly and, of all things, it has released almost Rs 2,70,000 crore of liquidity in a month — an unthinkable amount till recently.
The latest data from the US economy points to a worsening economic situation. For the first time in several decades, consumer expenditures have dropped and that too sharply. Worse, this data is for the quarter immediately preceding the big pain induced by the collapse in the financial sector in mid September. So, analysts have argued that the last quarter of 2008 is likely to be much worse.
There are straws in the wind, suggesting that the recent rise in the stock markets is a blip. Reports suggest that the largest insurance firm AIG, which has been given a total bailout package of $123 billion, has more or less exhausted this amount in a month. The bailout of $ 85 billion announced in September looked huge but another $38 billion had to be given and even that has disappeared into a bottomless pit. How much more would be needed by the AIG?
That depends on the liabilities on its books and how much have its assets degraded in the present situation of rapid economic decline. All this indicates the difficulties that every business, and not just financial institutions, may be currently facing. All of them may be headed for difficulties because the assets on their books have lost value with the decline of the markets while their huge liabilities may be intact. The balance sheet may have huge holes.
The largest Japanese bank, Mitsubishi Financial Group that took equity in Morgan Stanley to bail it out, is now in trouble. It is trying to raise an equity of $10.7 billion. The shares held by Mitsubishi have fallen in value by 40 per cent. This has shaken confidence not only in Japan but also in the rest of the world. So entities that may look healthy at one point of time and may be asked to bail- out the not-so-healthy ones may themselves be in trouble very quickly not only because they took on another collapsing entity but because their own portfolio has degraded — not in years but in days and months.
The clear lesson is that given the disastrous financial situation worldwide, one does not know which entity is headed for trouble in the coming days and months. Under the circumstances, every entity is protecting itself. One way to do so is to become conservative and not trust others, not invest, etc. This becomes an added source of trouble.
The situation has gone out of the control of governments as far as the financial markets are concerned. The losses in the books have become so large that even the governments do not have the resources to save these entities. The monetary authorities have lost their power to regulate since their instruments are now blunted by the loss of trust and abnormal events in the economy. They may lower interest rates, but investments in the current situation of growing uncertainty will not rise. They may release money but it will simply sit with economic agents since they do not want to take on fresh commitments and want to stay liquid rather than commit funds. In brief, demand has collapsed.
The real economy is being severely dented since most businesses have also indulged in buying the financial instruments that are now in trouble. After all, they like to make as high a profit as possible and the financial markets were promising that and luring all and sundry — everyone was trapped by greed.
An Indian conglomerate bought a Europe firm at what was then thought to be a high price. Today the price of that asset would have collapsed in the market but the debts taken to buy the company would stand. The financial situation of the firm must be poor. The same company also bought two more firms later for the sake of prestige and again they would have taken a hit. How this firm would fare in the coming months is a moot question.
Assocham put out a report that soon some major industries will retrench in a big way. Not so surprisingly, within a week, they have withdrawn the report under pressure for the government which is still claiming that the economy would grow at 7 per cent. Is this feasible, given that the industrial growth has fallen to 1.5 per cent for the latest month and major parts of the tertiary sector, like the financial sector, hotels, tourism, trade, travel and housing, are seeing sharp declines? The Finance Minister has claimed that more jobs would be generated this year than during the entire NDA regime — a poor game of political one upmanship.
The problem is likely to aggravate as time passes because the world economy is headed into a prolonged recession or even a depression. Major Indian industries are likely to slow down or show negative growth. Can industry carry surplus labour in times when its bottomline is being hit due to lack of orders and build-up of inventories? Its losses can only mount even faster and it would sink sooner than later unless a national strategy is worked out as to how India will cope with the coming difficult time. There is no point in living in denial and not preparing.
Malaysia delinked itself from international capital flows in 1997 to save itself from the ongoing economic collapse in South-East Asia. The US and the IMF lectured it then for wrong policies but later held it up as a model for others. We also need to protect our interest and not open ourselves indiscriminately. The FIIs brought in funds but now they are withdrawing and leading to the collapse of the stock market. The government is opening up the insurance sector to greater FDI. In these times when the insurance sector is also in deep trouble (AIG being the biggest one) where will these funds come from? If they do come, would they also not try to quickly exploit the situation to shore up their parent companies, etc?
We need to invest in our real economy, keep employment up, encourage investment and keep our savings moving within the economy and not let them leak out through opening up the sector. Are we learning anything from anyone? If not, that is not unusual but a part of the predictability.
arunkumar1000@hotmail.com
Growing Uncertainty: Time to Invest in Real Economy
Growing uncertainty: Time to invest in real economy
by Arun Kumar
The Tribune, November 5, 2008.
These are extraordinary times, so strange and unexpected things occurring should not surprise us. The only thing predictable is that one cannot predict correctly (that also applies to the Indian cricket team!). The US government, after promising under different heads a few trillion dollars, seems to be fighting a losing battle with the economy steadily declining.
The Indian government, after so much song and dance in the last few years about the need for strict adherence to FRBM, has thrown it out of the window by announcing huge expenditures. Much was also made of the RBI’s autonomy but that is also a thing of the past with the government requiring it to act quickly and, of all things, it has released almost Rs 2,70,000 crore of liquidity in a month — an unthinkable amount till recently.
The latest data from the US economy points to a worsening economic situation. For the first time in several decades, consumer expenditures have dropped and that too sharply. Worse, this data is for the quarter immediately preceding the big pain induced by the collapse in the financial sector in mid September. So, analysts have argued that the last quarter of 2008 is likely to be much worse.
There are straws in the wind, suggesting that the recent rise in the stock markets is a blip. Reports suggest that the largest insurance firm AIG, which has been given a total bailout package of $123 billion, has more or less exhausted this amount in a month. The bailout of $ 85 billion announced in September looked huge but another $38 billion had to be given and even that has disappeared into a bottomless pit. How much more would be needed by the AIG?
That depends on the liabilities on its books and how much have its assets degraded in the present situation of rapid economic decline. All this indicates the difficulties that every business, and not just financial institutions, may be currently facing. All of them may be headed for difficulties because the assets on their books have lost value with the decline of the markets while their huge liabilities may be intact. The balance sheet may have huge holes.
The largest Japanese bank, Mitsubishi Financial Group that took equity in Morgan Stanley to bail it out, is now in trouble. It is trying to raise an equity of $10.7 billion. The shares held by Mitsubishi have fallen in value by 40 per cent. This has shaken confidence not only in Japan but also in the rest of the world. So entities that may look healthy at one point of time and may be asked to bail- out the not-so-healthy ones may themselves be in trouble very quickly not only because they took on another collapsing entity but because their own portfolio has degraded — not in years but in days and months.
The clear lesson is that given the disastrous financial situation worldwide, one does not know which entity is headed for trouble in the coming days and months. Under the circumstances, every entity is protecting itself. One way to do so is to become conservative and not trust others, not invest, etc. This becomes an added source of trouble.
The situation has gone out of the control of governments as far as the financial markets are concerned. The losses in the books have become so large that even the governments do not have the resources to save these entities. The monetary authorities have lost their power to regulate since their instruments are now blunted by the loss of trust and abnormal events in the economy. They may lower interest rates, but investments in the current situation of growing uncertainty will not rise. They may release money but it will simply sit with economic agents since they do not want to take on fresh commitments and want to stay liquid rather than commit funds. In brief, demand has collapsed.
The real economy is being severely dented since most businesses have also indulged in buying the financial instruments that are now in trouble. After all, they like to make as high a profit as possible and the financial markets were promising that and luring all and sundry — everyone was trapped by greed.
An Indian conglomerate bought a Europe firm at what was then thought to be a high price. Today the price of that asset would have collapsed in the market but the debts taken to buy the company would stand. The financial situation of the firm must be poor. The same company also bought two more firms later for the sake of prestige and again they would have taken a hit. How this firm would fare in the coming months is a moot question.
Assocham put out a report that soon some major industries will retrench in a big way. Not so surprisingly, within a week, they have withdrawn the report under pressure for the government which is still claiming that the economy would grow at 7 per cent. Is this feasible, given that the industrial growth has fallen to 1.5 per cent for the latest month and major parts of the tertiary sector, like the financial sector, hotels, tourism, trade, travel and housing, are seeing sharp declines? The Finance Minister has claimed that more jobs would be generated this year than during the entire NDA regime — a poor game of political one upmanship.
The problem is likely to aggravate as time passes because the world economy is headed into a prolonged recession or even a depression. Major Indian industries are likely to slow down or show negative growth. Can industry carry surplus labour in times when its bottomline is being hit due to lack of orders and build-up of inventories? Its losses can only mount even faster and it would sink sooner than later unless a national strategy is worked out as to how India will cope with the coming difficult time. There is no point in living in denial and not preparing.
Malaysia delinked itself from international capital flows in 1997 to save itself from the ongoing economic collapse in South-East Asia. The US and the IMF lectured it then for wrong policies but later held it up as a model for others. We also need to protect our interest and not open ourselves indiscriminately. The FIIs brought in funds but now they are withdrawing and leading to the collapse of the stock market. The government is opening up the insurance sector to greater FDI. In these times when the insurance sector is also in deep trouble (AIG being the biggest one) where will these funds come from? If they do come, would they also not try to quickly exploit the situation to shore up their parent companies, etc?
We need to invest in our real economy, keep employment up, encourage investment and keep our savings moving within the economy and not let them leak out through opening up the sector. Are we learning anything from anyone? If not, that is not unusual but a part of the predictability.
arunkumar1000@hotmail.com
by Arun Kumar
The Tribune, November 5, 2008.
These are extraordinary times, so strange and unexpected things occurring should not surprise us. The only thing predictable is that one cannot predict correctly (that also applies to the Indian cricket team!). The US government, after promising under different heads a few trillion dollars, seems to be fighting a losing battle with the economy steadily declining.
The Indian government, after so much song and dance in the last few years about the need for strict adherence to FRBM, has thrown it out of the window by announcing huge expenditures. Much was also made of the RBI’s autonomy but that is also a thing of the past with the government requiring it to act quickly and, of all things, it has released almost Rs 2,70,000 crore of liquidity in a month — an unthinkable amount till recently.
The latest data from the US economy points to a worsening economic situation. For the first time in several decades, consumer expenditures have dropped and that too sharply. Worse, this data is for the quarter immediately preceding the big pain induced by the collapse in the financial sector in mid September. So, analysts have argued that the last quarter of 2008 is likely to be much worse.
There are straws in the wind, suggesting that the recent rise in the stock markets is a blip. Reports suggest that the largest insurance firm AIG, which has been given a total bailout package of $123 billion, has more or less exhausted this amount in a month. The bailout of $ 85 billion announced in September looked huge but another $38 billion had to be given and even that has disappeared into a bottomless pit. How much more would be needed by the AIG?
That depends on the liabilities on its books and how much have its assets degraded in the present situation of rapid economic decline. All this indicates the difficulties that every business, and not just financial institutions, may be currently facing. All of them may be headed for difficulties because the assets on their books have lost value with the decline of the markets while their huge liabilities may be intact. The balance sheet may have huge holes.
The largest Japanese bank, Mitsubishi Financial Group that took equity in Morgan Stanley to bail it out, is now in trouble. It is trying to raise an equity of $10.7 billion. The shares held by Mitsubishi have fallen in value by 40 per cent. This has shaken confidence not only in Japan but also in the rest of the world. So entities that may look healthy at one point of time and may be asked to bail- out the not-so-healthy ones may themselves be in trouble very quickly not only because they took on another collapsing entity but because their own portfolio has degraded — not in years but in days and months.
The clear lesson is that given the disastrous financial situation worldwide, one does not know which entity is headed for trouble in the coming days and months. Under the circumstances, every entity is protecting itself. One way to do so is to become conservative and not trust others, not invest, etc. This becomes an added source of trouble.
The situation has gone out of the control of governments as far as the financial markets are concerned. The losses in the books have become so large that even the governments do not have the resources to save these entities. The monetary authorities have lost their power to regulate since their instruments are now blunted by the loss of trust and abnormal events in the economy. They may lower interest rates, but investments in the current situation of growing uncertainty will not rise. They may release money but it will simply sit with economic agents since they do not want to take on fresh commitments and want to stay liquid rather than commit funds. In brief, demand has collapsed.
The real economy is being severely dented since most businesses have also indulged in buying the financial instruments that are now in trouble. After all, they like to make as high a profit as possible and the financial markets were promising that and luring all and sundry — everyone was trapped by greed.
An Indian conglomerate bought a Europe firm at what was then thought to be a high price. Today the price of that asset would have collapsed in the market but the debts taken to buy the company would stand. The financial situation of the firm must be poor. The same company also bought two more firms later for the sake of prestige and again they would have taken a hit. How this firm would fare in the coming months is a moot question.
Assocham put out a report that soon some major industries will retrench in a big way. Not so surprisingly, within a week, they have withdrawn the report under pressure for the government which is still claiming that the economy would grow at 7 per cent. Is this feasible, given that the industrial growth has fallen to 1.5 per cent for the latest month and major parts of the tertiary sector, like the financial sector, hotels, tourism, trade, travel and housing, are seeing sharp declines? The Finance Minister has claimed that more jobs would be generated this year than during the entire NDA regime — a poor game of political one upmanship.
The problem is likely to aggravate as time passes because the world economy is headed into a prolonged recession or even a depression. Major Indian industries are likely to slow down or show negative growth. Can industry carry surplus labour in times when its bottomline is being hit due to lack of orders and build-up of inventories? Its losses can only mount even faster and it would sink sooner than later unless a national strategy is worked out as to how India will cope with the coming difficult time. There is no point in living in denial and not preparing.
Malaysia delinked itself from international capital flows in 1997 to save itself from the ongoing economic collapse in South-East Asia. The US and the IMF lectured it then for wrong policies but later held it up as a model for others. We also need to protect our interest and not open ourselves indiscriminately. The FIIs brought in funds but now they are withdrawing and leading to the collapse of the stock market. The government is opening up the insurance sector to greater FDI. In these times when the insurance sector is also in deep trouble (AIG being the biggest one) where will these funds come from? If they do come, would they also not try to quickly exploit the situation to shore up their parent companies, etc?
We need to invest in our real economy, keep employment up, encourage investment and keep our savings moving within the economy and not let them leak out through opening up the sector. Are we learning anything from anyone? If not, that is not unusual but a part of the predictability.
arunkumar1000@hotmail.com
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