Friday, November 2, 2012

Mirroring India’s Future: The Decline of Retailers and Farmers in Mexico

Mirroring India’s Future: The Decline of Retailers and Farmers in Mexico
Arun Kumar
Chairperson and Sukhamoy Chakravarty Chair Professor, CESP, SSS, JNU.

A computer systems analyst was the driver of the taxi which took me from the airport to the hotel in Mexico city. A cheerful English speaking man who talked about himself and his family’s woes in the hour it took to cover the 30 kms. He wanted to know about the global economic crisis so that he could figure out why things were bad in Mexico for people like him. He complained about unemployment and his inability to get the right job without connections - a fate his children also face. He put the blame on the US and its policies and corruption in society. These themes were repeated many a times during my week of stay in Mexico.
The taxi passed through many commercial and residential areas but no small shops were visible. There were big malls, automobile dealers, petrol stations, restaurants, pharmacy stores and car repair shops. I wondered if they were inside the colonies. A friend who had been posted in the Indian Embassy in the mid-1980s had mentioned that there were fruit stores everywhere and one could make a meal of fruits in the evening but such shops were no where in evidence. I speculated if this was the future of the Indian metropolises.
The absence of small stores was perplexing but more intriguing was the serious unemployment given that Mexico has been a part of NAFTA since 1994 and which brought in much foreign investment, many factories have relocated from the US to Northern Mexico to supply the US and Canadian markets and so on. The city was bustling with cars and it is prosperous compared to India with a per capita income ten times ours. There are layers of flyovers one on top of the other but there were traffic jams. During day time, it takes 2 – 3 hours to cover a distance that takes 25 minutes early in the morning. Public transport system consists of rail, buses and trams but people are stuck in traffic for a good part of their day. The city has to spread horizontally since it is built on land fill and there is lots of water below the surface. Thus, multi-storeyed buildings require expensive deep foundations. So, most buildings are one or two stories high and that has forced the city of 25 million to spread out.
Old timers remember that Mexico city had small stores till the mid 1980s. Only the organized sector stores survive now, like, the Sanborn chain belonging to Mr. Slim, the richest man in the world. Sanborn has had a unique model of a restaurant on the first floor and a gift shop, pharmacy and other such conveniences on the ground floor. The young I talked to did not remember any time when there were corner stores in the residential colonies. From the Hotel window, perched 8 floors up, I could see malls but no small stores. Sears, Walmart, McDonalds and so on were all there like, anywhere in the USA. In residential colonies, I did see a few small stores but most of them were American `Seven Eleven’ stores. But, there are pavement stalls and markets where the poor purchase their necessities. It was ironic to see the workers in ties from the malls cross the street to eat at the pavement stalls – perhaps they could not afford to eat in the mall.
On a visit to the charming centre of town it was refreshing to see streets lined with small stores. My escort told me that many people came here to shop because it was cheaper here then in the malls. I found a sweet shop named Cellaya established in 1874, much like our Halwai shops. It had the equivalent of kaju, pista and badam barfis, but very expensive.
I went outside Mexico city to Teotihuacan to see the Pyramids. The huge pyramid of the Sun god is apparently a few times larger than the biggest Egyptian pyramids. It was a part of an ancient city 2,000 years back which was over 3 miles long and had more than 1.5 lakh people. All this was awe inspiring but it was tiring because it involved hours of walking and climbing up and down. At the end of it all we went to the neighbouring town to eat. At its entrance over the road there was a beautiful arch which announced `Teotihuacan Pueblo con Encanto’. There the streets were lined with small stores.
The next day I visited the village Tlalnepantla in Morelos. I counted dozens of small shops for a population of a few thousand. This is a revolutionary village. Alvaro, our host, was an economics graduate who settled down here 40 years back. He does Nopal (cactus) cultivation along with the rest of the villagers. His small garden at the house had trees bearing guava, avacados, lime, lukat and so on. He has successfully experimented with creating a village republic. It was amazing to see the hilly village surrounded by 4,000 hectares of Nopal cultivation. Even more breathtaking was the clear view of the distant volcano from which a plume of smoke emanated.
The village rejected the corrupt political parties. They selected their own leader and did not recognize the president of the municipality, a party man. The government sent in troops declaring Alvaro and others as terrorists and they had to go underground. There were protests all over Mexico and especially in the Universities. The government was forced to drop the charges and come to an agreement. Land here belongs to the community and cannot be sold to outsiders. Hearing that an Indian professor was visiting the village, its leaders came with lunch and cactus products - cooked as vegetable, turned into pickle and marmalade– very delicious. Alvero asked about Gandhi, his philosophy of non-violence and how it could be applied in modern society. Gandhi seems to have a special place in Mexico. A chain of book stores is called `Gandhi’. There are parks and roads named after Gandhi.
The farmers are upset with the USA and NAFTA. They complained that the free market had enabled subsidized food to come from the US and destroyed their agriculture which now contributes only 4% of GDP. Thus, the two big employers, agriculture and retail trade have suffered in the last two decades and that is why unemployment is high (5.2%) but underemployment maybe 25%. I met a professor who said his son got a job only because of his connections and another said his son doing a Ph.D. is worried about the future. Why is this happening with so much foreign investment? This unemployment has driven down wages so that a starting Asst Prof in the University complained that he barely makes ends meet with his salary determined by the number of lectures he gives in the month. He thought that the taxi driver was better off than himself.
Worse, in Northern Mexico where investments from the US have poured in, Mafia has taken over and there is lawlessness. There the state seems to be withering away. Unemployed youth joins the Mafia. There is drug trafficking and illegal migration of youth into the US. It is this migration that has kept unemployment from getting worse. The migrants send money back home. So, remittances along with income from petroleum exports and tourism keep the Mexican economy afloat and prevent the crisis from deepening.
The proximity to the US, free trade with it and the investments from there have instead of solving Mexico’s problems led to a deepening crisis of unemployment, decline of traditional agriculture and to the demise of small retailers in metro cities. I wondered whether what I was seeing in Mexico was India fast forwarded twenty years, when the Metros will see lots of cars and traffic jams, unemployment, malls but few small retail stores and agriculture in crisis. Small stores are likely to survive in small towns and villages.
Our crisis is likely to be worse than Mexico’s since we do not border the largest economy in the world where our youth could illegally migrate nor are we likely to get investment in per capita terms matching what Mexico has got nor do we have petroleum or tourism income to prop us up. So, does Mexico mirror a part of our future if we continue with our current policies? What the mirror does not reflect maybe even bleaker because we are not Mexico.


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